Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the front-runners for baseball’s MVP awards, according to the oddsmakers.
It’s only the All-Star break, but one or two clear favorites have emerged for several of the game’s top honors. With play set to resume again Friday, here’s a look at what the betting lines have to say, courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.
AL MVP
The favorite: Aaron Judge, Yankees (-350)
Top challenger: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+240)
Longer shots: Juan Soto, Yankees (+1800), Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (+2000), José Ramirez (+5000)
Judge and Henderson have separated themselves in what once looked like it could be a four-player race, and Judge’s odds being shorter than even money may come as a surprise to some. The Yankees (-115) are only a slight favorite to win the AL East, so clearly the market believes Judge has a decent chance to win MVP honors even if New York finishes behind Baltimore.
NL MVP
The favorite: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (-375)
Top challenger: Bryce Harper, Phillies (+450)
Longer shots: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (+2000), Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+2500), Marcell Ozuna, Braves (+2500)
Injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mookie Betts have helped Ohtani’s chances. As a full-time designated hitter this year, he may face some resistance from voters, but perhaps what Ohtani does on the basepaths — he’s tied for third in the major leagues with 23 steals — can make up for his lack of defensive value.
AL Cy Young
The favorite: Tarik Skubal, Tigers (-150)
Top challenger: Corbin Burnes, Orioles (+325)
Longer shots: Logan Gilbert, Mariners (+1200), Seth Lugo, Royals (+1200), Garrett Crochet, White Sox (+2800), Tanner Houck, Red Sox (+2800)
Burnes was the pick to start the All-Star game, but Skubal (10-3, 2.41 ERA) is the favorite for the Cy Young. Of course, there’s at least some possibility the Detroit left-hander could be traded to the National League before the deadline.
NL Cy Young
The favorite: Chris Sale, Braves (+115)
Top challenger: Zack Wheeler, Phillies (+155)
Longer shots: Paul Skenes, Pirates (+400), Ranger Suárez, Phillies (+2800), Logan Webb, Giants (+3000), Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers (+3000)
Sale finished in the top six of the American League Cy Young vote for seven straight years from 2012-18, but he never won. It would be something if he finally captures the award now, on the NL side at age 35.
AL Rookie of the Year
The favorite: Wyatt Langford, Rangers (+120)
The challenger: Luis Gil, Yankees (+200)
Longer shots: Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox (+1100), Colton Cowser, Orioles (+1200), Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (+1600), Mason Miller, Athletics (+1600)
Langford is the favorite among hitters and Gil among pitchers. Langford hit for the cycle last month, but Gil is well ahead of him in wins above replacement — both the Baseball Reference and FanGraphs versions.
NL Rookie of the Year
The favorite: Paul Skenes, Pirates (-1200)
The challenger: Jackson Merrill, Padres (+500)
Longer shots: Shota Imanaga, Cubs (+2800), Gavin Stone, Dodgers (+4000), Michael Busch, Cubs (+4000)
The biggest favorite in any of these awards is Skenes for Rookie of the Year. That makes sense, seeing as he’s also worked his way into the Cy Young conversation — although there’s always some injury risk with pitchers, and it’s not clear how hard the Pirates will push him if they don’t stay in the postseason race.
AL Manager
of the Year
The favorite: Stephen Vogt, Guardians (-155)
The challenger: Alex Cora, Red Sox (+230)
Longer shots: Matt Quatraro, Royals (+950), Brandon Hyde, Orioles (+1700), Rocco Baldelli, Twins (+1700)
Vogt had tough shoes to fill taking over for Terry Francona, and Cleveland has the best record in the AL after finishing 10 games under .500 last year. Quatraro’s Royals are in contention, but for how much longer?
NL Manager
of the Year
The favorite: Pat Murphy, Brewers (+100)
The challenger: Rob Thomson, Phillies (+125)
Longer shots: Oliver Marmol, Cardinals (+1700), Carlos Mendoza, Mets (+1700), Mike Shildt, Padres (+1700)
Murphy is similar to Vogt. He took over for a successful manager — in this case, Craig Counsell — and has his team in first place. Thomson’s Phillies have the best record in baseball, however.
It feels like just about anyone could end up in the last two wild-card spots in the NL. Perhaps one of those teams will be sufficiently surprising that its manager reaps the reward.
