ORCHARD PARK — Come Christmas night, the Bills could be locked into their playoff seed.
The Bills, of course, want the No. 1 seed in the AFC, a bye and home field advantage through the playoffs. But that’s out of their hands, and up to the Chiefs and Steelers on Wednesday in Pittsburgh. A Kansas City win would give the Chiefs the No. 1 seed. Later that evening, Baltimore — the only other team that can catch Buffalo in the standings — plays at Houston. If Houson and K.C. both win Wednesday, the Bills would be set as the No. 2 seed before playing a snap next Sunday.
In that scenario, Bills coach Sean McDermott would have a choice to make about how to use his starters over the season’s final two weeks.
Sunday’s 24-21 win over the New England Patriots, a 14-point underdog, showed just how flimsy things can get for these Bills if they’re not healthy, especially if Josh Allen isn’t at his MVP-caliber best.
Allen didn’t have a great game on Sunday even before he knocked his right elbow on either a Patriot helmet or the cold, hard turf (he wasn’t sure which) early in the fourth quarter. He temporarily lost feeling in his throwing hand — and temporarily sent any Bills fan watching into a panic. Before anyone else knew it was a problem, Allen tried to throw deep to Dalton Kincaid on the next snap, but the ball slipped and fluttered out of his hand so badly it negated a clear case of pass interference for being an “uncatchable” ball.
As Allen and the athletic trainers worked on his hand, backup Mitch Trubiskey practiced taking snaps and warm-up throws on the sideline. The Bills scored a defensive touchdown in the meantime — Taron Johnson falling on a fumbled lateral at the goal line — keeping the QB on the sideline a few plays longer. But by the time Buffalo forced a punt on the next possession, Allen was back on the field.
“I touched base with Josh back there and put eyes on him and they were going through the test and whatnot,” McDermott told reporters. “At that point it’s all you can do, Nate (Breske, head athletic trainer) was working with him and the docs to see what was going on exactly there. They cleared him to go back and play. Our medical staff does a great job. If it’s not safe for a player, they’re not going to put him back out there. So I trust them and they gave him the green light to go back out there.”
Allen previously had a “funny bone” incident in the snowy win over the 49ers three weeks ago, but in his left arm. He looked relieved to get out of this one without a serious injury, either.
“It took a good five to 10 minutes of just making sure, trying to get some blood flow back in there, some activation,” Allen told reporters Sunday. “When it’s cold like that, when you leave it out the number the whole hand gets. So it’s a weird feeling. Just glad it’s gone now.”
After a torrid stretch of indoor road games at Los Angeles and Detroit, Allen and the offense took a step back on a frigid evening in Orchard Park. He completed 55% of his passes (16-for-29) for a touchdown and a pick. Running back James Cook had the big day offensively, picking up 46 of his 100 rushing yards on one touchdown run in the second half and later scoring again on a pass from Allen.
With the passing game a step out of sync and defense struggling to stop rookie Drake Maye and the New England offense in the first half, the Bills were fortunate to turn the turnover battle around with three second-half takeaways en route to the win.
Allen also acknowledged the Bills holding back a bit in the playbook this week.
“We’re in a weird spot right now where we’re still fighting for the 1 seed, but we don’t control our own destiny,” he said, responding to a question about division games and the familiarity between rivals. “As an offense it’s, ‘How much are we willing to show?’ Are we wanting to go extreme and show everything in our arsenal? There’s a line that you’ve got to toe. At the end of the day we’re just trying to go 1-0 each week and find a way to win against these guys.”
The odds are the Bills will still have something to play for next week against the Jets, unless that Christmas scenario plays out. It’s probably more likely they’d be able to rest starters in Week 18 at New England. The defense, down four starters Sunday (Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, Rasul Douglas, Matt Milano) could use the rest too.
Sacrificing a regular season game or two might hurt Allen’s MVP case if, say, Lamar Jackson or Saquon Barkley go nuts in the meantime. So what. I’m sure he’d take a Super Bowl MVP over that any day. So would any quarterback, judged ultimately by wins in January and February.
The only thing that matters is giving yourself the best chance at a Super Bowl. And in the Bills’ case, that might mean playing at home as much as possible. It also means a healthy Josh Allen.
