HARRISBURG (TNS) — Faced with the harsh reality of a tough general election Joe Biden and Kamala Harris each did something no political pundit expected: they unequivocally opposed a ban to fracking. This was a partial flip-flop by Biden and a total flip-flop by Harris.
But when faced with winning or losing the presidency, candidates will make all sorts of compromises to win — or not lose. Biden and Harris clearly knew that opposing energy development or banning fracking in Pennsylvania would be a big loser — and they were right.
In spite of an enormous campaign finance advantage, an enthusiastic voter base and overwhelming confidence, the Democratic Party thought a clean sweep was in the cards. While the Democratic Party is happy (or is it relieved?) that Joe Biden won, Republicans can be more than satisfied.
But the big winner on Election Day was Pennsylvania’s energy industry and natural gas, in particular. The opposing fortunes of the now-former House Minority Leader Representative Dermody and his Democratic colleague, Rep. Snyder clearly show the benefit of supporting energy development and the danger of being associated with opposition.
Snyder, a consistent and vocal supporter of natural gas development, defeated a determined challenge in an area that voted for Trump by nearly 70% and supported the GOP statewide candidates across the board. Meanwhile, 30-year incumbent Dermody, who as the Democratic leader was saddled with an increasingly hostile Democratic national agenda against natural gas, was defeated by a political newcomer.
The story was the same outside Philadelphia and its suburbs. Republican candidates won consistently in spite of being outspent. The GOP netted three seats in the state House and have run at least even in the state Senate with one seat still in recount.
Statewide, the Democrats were heavily favored in all four races (President, Attorney General, Auditor General and Treasurer), yet only managed a split. As with the legislative races, the Democrats heavily outspent the Republican candidates. Among the winners, only incumbent Attorney General Josh Shapiro can be counted as opponents to natural gas and energy development.
The results should not be that surprising. Pennsylvania voters have always put jobs and the economy at the top of their concerns and the energy industry, particularly natural gas, has created thousands of new jobs. Over 300,000 jobs are supported both directly and indirectly by the industry.
And these jobs offer good pay and benefits, better than alternative energy projects. The North America’s Building Trade Unions confirmed this, finding in a study that “tradespeople working in energy construction report that they consider projects in oil and natural gas industries to have better wages, benefits, and opportunities than renewables projects.” The Republican embrace of energy and rejection by many Democrats has caused once reliably Democratic union voters to switch over to the GOP.
Development and expanded use of natural gas has benefited consumers and reduced carbon emissions. The Consumer Energy Alliance calculates natural gas customers — both commercial and residential — have saved in excess of $30 billion since 2006 due to falling natural gas prices.
Natural gas is far less carbon intensive than most alternatives, particularly coal. The natural gas renaissance in Pennsylvania and across the United States has largely displaced coal-fired energy in the state, reducing not just carbon emissions but also harmful particulates and heavy metals.
The Environmental Protection Agency confirms in its 2020 annual report, “since 2005, national greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by 10%, and power sector emissions have fallen by 27% — even as our economy grew by 25%.” The report goes on to highlight the United States as the world’s leader in greenhouse emissions reductions.
Public surveys, even by environmental groups generally opposed to natural gas development, show broad support for the natural gas industry. Voters may recoil at the word “fracking,” (52% to 48%) but they support the “natural gas industry” by a wide 61% to 23% margin — and those numbers are from Climate Power 2000, an organization vehemently opposed to the hydrocarbons industry.
A poll from Morning Consult, commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute, shows 80% of Pennsylvanians surveyed believe that the natural gas industry “provides value” for them, with 60% inclined to support political candidates who favored increased access to domestically produced natural gas.
The bottom line for Pennsylvania politics and prospective candidates is that supporting development of natural gas is an electoral winner. Alternative energy development and a clean environment also poll favorably, but voters are not interested in an either/or choice. They clearly want a wide variety of energy options and the economic benefits that come from the natural gas industry.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris figured that out. Their co-partisans would be wise to do the same.
(Keith Naughton, co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, is a public affairs strategist and was former Gov. Tom Ridge’s political director.)