PHILADELPHIA (TNS) — Pennsylvania colleges have had a tough time competing for a shrinking pool of high school graduates in recent years, and new data show it’s going to get tougher.
Pennsylvania is projected to see more than a 17%, or 24,000-student, decline, in high school graduates from 2023 to 2041, according to new data from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, which provides a snapshot every four years, largely based on U.S. birthrates. By 2041, the state is projected to have 116,928 graduates.
Just next door, New Jersey will see a much smaller decline, just 1%, or 1,341 graduates, to a total of 107,973 in 2041, according to the commission.
Patrick Lane, WICHE’s vice president for policy analysis and research, said he couldn’t explain the stark difference between the two neighboring states, other than the obvious difference in birthrates, and he speculated migration into and out of the states could be having an impact.
The nation as a whole is expected to reach its peak of high school graduates in 2025, at 3.9 million, and then steadily decline by 13% to 3.4 million by 2041.
Nationally, 38 states are expected to record declines by 2041, including all nine states in the Northeast, with Pennsylvania’s percentage drop the second-steepest in the region, behind New York at 27%. The Northeast’s drop, which is projected to hit 17% by 2041, has become even more pronounced than it was in the commission’s last snapshot four years ago.
That could spell more trouble for the region’s colleges, some of which already are coping with financial struggles and enrollment declines and turning to mergers, closures, buyouts, and layoffs. But commission officials say it doesn’t have to be that way.
“Demography need not be destiny,” WICHE president Demarée Michelau said in the report. “There are proven approaches to increasing student access and success, especially for those whom higher education has not historically served well.”
Michelau, whose organization has been providing the snapshots since 1979, said the projections certainly are “cause for concern” but noted that “the bottom will not fall out overnight.”
“States and institutions have time right now to build on approaches that will work in their contexts to meet current and future workforce needs,” she said.
Pa. schools are searching for solutions
The projections are no surprise for colleges, which have known for years that an enrollment cliff was coming, beginning in 2026. In the Philadelphia region, colleges are looking more deeply at creating programs in the highest-demand areas, broadening student recruitment regions, offering competitive pricing for graduate degrees, and serving older, nontraditional students.
have consolidated schools or colleges, offered buyouts, and laid off employees in an effort to become more efficient in the face of declining tuition revenue. Two local colleges, the University of the Arts and Cabrini University, have closed in the last year, while others have merged.
Compounding the problem in Pennsylvania is that fewer high school graduates are choosing to go to college. Sixty-two percent chose college in 2017, compared with 55% in 2022. In addition, there are 1.1 million Pennsylvanians who have some college experience but no degree and could help fill workforce shortages.
Recommendations and other highlights
The commission highlighted some of the same issues in its recommendations. States, businesses, and colleges should focus on state and federal aid to improve college affordability, reach out to adult learners who have some college but haven’t finished their degree, and increase high school advising to better prepare students for “emerging” or high-demand jobs, the group said. It also called for more academic and financial support for college students and the closing of graduation- and retention-rate gaps among racial groups.
Other highlights of the report include:
