Persistent pro football bettors have one indisputable rule: Don’t bet in the first or last week of the NFL regular season.
It’s true the opening week because of the uncertainty created by training camp and the preseason performance.
The final week is different. Some teams have nothing to play for, others have everything at stake. Will the have-nots stick with their starters or audition the kids? Do the haves play their first-stringers in order to stay sharp for the playoffs or sit them to avoid injury?
It’s the latter scenario in which Buffalo finds itself as it meets Miami Sunday afternoon at Bills Stadium (1 o’clock CBS-TV, 95.7 FM, 100.1 FM, 550 AM).
Buffalo (12-3) has already clinched the AFC East title and will finish as either the No. 2 or 3 seed in the conference — depending upon tomorrow’s results — to conclude this Covid-19-impacted campaign.
The Dolphins (10-5) would own a playoff berth if the season ended today, but they’re one of five teams with the same record vying for four spots. Thus, with a loss, Miami must hope for a defeat by Indianapolis (home versus Jacksonville, 1-14), Cleveland (home against Pittsburgh, 12-3), Baltimore at Cincinnati (4-10-1) or Tennessee at Houston (4-11).
Interestingly, the Bills, who opened this week as a 5.5-point favorite, are now given only a field goal edge.
OF COURSE, the Steelers-Browns game has great significance for Buffalo.
The Bills claim the No. 2 seed by beating the Dolphins, but even with a loss, they also earn it if Cleveland beats Pittsburgh.
For Miami, it’s a no-brainer, all hands on deck for a game in which a win guarantees a playoff spot. And, as it is, it’s already lost a key operative with former Bills’ quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick testing positive for the coronavirus and ineligible to play Sunday.
Indeed, Fitz kept the Dolphins close in Week 2 when Buffalo had to hang on for a 31-28 victory at Hard Rock Stadium.
He started the first six games – winning the last two and playing well – before giving way to rookie first-round draft pick Tua Tagovailoa, whom he has replaced twice in the fourth quarter down the stretch when the former Alabama star struggled. Indeed, last Saturday, Fitzpatrick produced a miracle 26-25 win at Las Vegas, after the Raiders took the lead with 19 seconds to play. Fitz threw a blind 34-yard completion to wideout Mack Hollins – Las Vegas blew the coverage – as the veteran QB’s helmet was twisted sideways by a flagrant facemask violation against the Raiders. The reception and penalty yards set up the game-winning field goal with one second remaining.
MEANWHILE, the Bills situation has become what should be a needless story among the Western New York sports media. Will Buffalo rest some or all of its starters?
That’s a real question?
The Bills, with a win, clinch the No. 2 AFC seed and not only host an opening-round playoff game, but also a divisional matchup, if they win the first. Pittsburgh, should it finish No. 3 and win the opener, hits the road … to Orchard Park.
Is a home playoff game against the Steelers an ample reward for playing starters in the regular season finale? The answer is so obvious it’s embarrassing.
Naturally, coach Sean McDermott isn’t saying what he’ll do, but that would seem to be gamesmanship.
Of course, the story got legs when Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin revealed he was going to bench quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and several other starters at Cleveland. With that announcement, oddsmakers who opened the line at Browns by 4, subsequently upped that margin to 9.
But there’s a cautionary tale here.
In the 2004 season finale, the Steelers were 14-1, had home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and absolutely nothing to play for. They came into Orchard Park with the Bills at 9-6 and needing a win to ensure a wild-card berth.
Bill Cowher benched Roethlisberger, who was hurting, and replaced him with journeyman Tommy Maddox. He also sat several other starters including injured running back Jerome Bettis, whose job fell to then-unknown Willie Parker. The favored Bills were at full strength.
When it was over, Pittsburgh prevailed, 29-24, in a game which wasn’t that close. Maddox was adequate, Parker ran for 102 yards, linebacker James Harrison returned a fumble for a score and Jeff Reed kicked five field goals.
Buffalo’s playoff spot was history.
IS IT possible McDermott will rest some starters Sunday?
Of course.
But only if the Bills take charge early against Miami or the Steelers are being handled at Cleveland.
NFL teams’ goals aren’t merely to make the playoffs, but rather to host those games.
It defies logic, with Buffalo already in the No. 2 position, that its coach is going to subject his team to possibly losing out on a second home playoff game because he was being uber cautious with his starters and ended up with the Bills playing the divisional round in Pittsburgh.
