The death rate in Pennsylvania’s rural counties is outpacing the birth rate, and has been for more than a decade.
The Center for Rural Pennsylvania used data from the state Department of Health and the U.S. Census Bureau to track down why rural Pennsylvania lost nearly 85,000 residents from 2010 to 2020.
Key findings included that the death rate outpaced the birth date, the total fertility rate is less than required for population replacement, and that the mortality rate in rural Pennsylvania was higher than in urban parts of the state.
“Most notably, there have been steady declines in rural and urban birth rates since 2014,” the report stated. The rural birth rate in 2014 was 9.91 per 1,000 residents; in 2020, it was 9.17. For the period of 2010 to 2020, the birth rate in McKean County was 9.53 per 1,000 residents; in Elk County, 9.23; and in Cameron, 8.62. Potter was the only local county to have a birth rate higher than 10 at 10.67 per 1,000 residents.
Statewide, the average birth rate for the period of 2010 to 2020 was 10.84 per 1,000 residents.
The total fertility rate was calculated for rural and urban areas as well. According to the Center’s report, in 2010, the fertility rate for rural Pennsylvania was 1.71. The rate mostly declined over the next decade, with rural parts of the state at 1.62.
“A rate of 2.1 or higher indicates that the population can replace itself,” the report stated. “Rates below 2.1 indicate that the population will not grow solely because of births.”
The issue is exacerbated by fewer people of childbearing age living in rural parts of the state. The Center’s study found that from 2010 to 2020, there was an 8% decline in the number of people of childbearing age — defined in the study as between ages 15 and 45.
In rural areas, 56.2% of mothers are between 20 and 29 years old, while 35.5% are between 30 and 39 years of age; 6.2% were less than 20 years old; 2.1% were more than 40 years old.
The study also found that deaths in rural Pennsylvania outpaced deaths in urban parts of the state each of the years from 2010 to 2020.
“The aggregate death rate in rural Pennsylvania during this period was 11.39 per 1,000 residents and in urban 9.97 per 1,000 residents,” the report stated.
The rates for both spiked in 2020 because of COVID. The average in rural deaths rose to 13.41, while urban deaths rose to 11.47.
The aggregate number of deaths from 2010 to 2020 for local counties showed each was above 12 deaths per 1,000 residents. McKean County was at 12.36, Elk at 12.42, Potter at 12.10 and Cameron at 13.26.
“For rural Pennsylvania to increase or sustain its current population, it must rely on in-migration,” the study concluded. “While some rural areas did attract new residents through in-migration, most did not.”
The local region was not in the area where new residents moved in. Those areas were generally located to the northeast, southwest and northwest parts of the state.
The report noted that rural Pennsylvania’s population is aging. One in five people in rural Pennsylvania are 65 and older.
“With an aging population, an increase in deaths is inevitable,” the study concluded. “The bottom line is that the trend of more deaths than births will not change in the near future, and will have implications on school enrollments, workforce participation rates, and volunteerism.”
