PITTSBURGH (TNS) — Weeks after former President Donald Trump told Pennsylvania farmers he would levy a 200% tax on John Deere tractors imported from Mexico, a new survey shows that most swing state voters oppose drastic tariffs, which can have mixed effects on the economy.
Most Americans prefer trade policies that are based on rules rather than reactions, polling by the University of Maryland found. They want the United States to enforce low, mutual tariffs with most countries, except for China, which has allegedly flaunted international trade rules.
The researchers surveyed residents of six swing states, including 612 adults in Pennsylvania. Participants took place in a policymaking simulation that allowed them to weigh arguments from both sides.
“Basically, they come out in favor of maintaining the system that we have,” said Steven Kull, director of the university’s Program for Public Consultation.
“If a country does break the rules, like China, they say, “Yes, we really approve of raising tariffs.’ It’s not like they’re for tariffs or against tariffs. It involves the whole context.”
Taxing imported goods has mixed impacts for American consumers. Trump and President Joe Biden have supported tariffs in industries like steel as a way to support domestic manufacturing. But they can also lead to retaliatory tariffs which drive up prices, as argued by Vice President Kamala Harris throughout her presidential campaign.
Tariffs are also a way of signaling American values. Most voters want more rules about labor standards and more rules about environmental standards, Kull said. “They want the system to get more stringent.”
The Pennsylvania survey was completed by 612 between Sept. 9 and Sept. 22, with participants coming from online panels and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro marital status, and home ownership to match the general adult population, researchers said. Margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4.5%.
The findings are consistent with past years of surveys, Kull said, but they’ve taken on greater significance during an election year as both presidential candidates debate the merits of differing tax policies.
Later this month, two Washington D.C. think tanks, the Brookings Institution and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, are hosting a discussion titled: “How would across-the-board tariffs create chaos in 2025?”
According to the University of Maryland, average tariffs on all global goods have decreased from about 22% in the 1940s to about 2% today — a reduction that came as the U.S. worked to promote rules-based international trade agreements.
A bipartisan majority in Pennsylvania of those surveyed support that system, including 73% of Republicans and 88% of Democrats. Other swing states saw similar support.
Few Pennsylvanians supported increasing tariffs on all imported goods to 10% or higher, as Trump has proposed.
Only 41% of Republicans and 27% of Democrats support such a measure, the poll found.
That conclusion was based on arguments that higher tariffs would boost government revenue, lower taxes on citizens, stimulate domestic manufacturing and lead to better-paying jobs, but also violate U.S. trade agreements, cause retaliatory tariff increases and raise consumer prices for everyone.
Arguments on both sides were found convincing by bipartisan majorities, according to the university.
When it comes to China, however, voters approve of a higher tax, despite the consequences. In Pennsylvania, 76% of Republicans and 82% of Democrats support the average 20% tax the U.S. places on Chinese products.
The U.S. increased the fee to that level in 2018 after China allegedly violated international trade rules. China responded by levying similarly high tariffs on the U.S.
At least one Pittsburgh business leader agreed with one of the poll’s central findings.
Trump’s proposed tariff on John Deere items, would bring “an iconic American brand to its knees,” said Alex Foessel, a former John Deere liaison to Latin America and Brazil who now works as managing partner at the off-road autonomy company Balanced Engineering.
“Trump, in his eagerness to promise something to voters in a swing state, is ignoring how business works,” Foessel said. “You can’t be competitive globally while being forced to manufacture in areas with higher costs of components and labor.”
