HARRISBURG (TNS) — Nobody in Pennsylvania felt the sting of President-elect Donald J. Trump’s MAGA 2.0 comeback quite like U.S. Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr.
Sure, a few other Democratic incumbents lost their elective offices in battleground Pennsylvania.
But for Casey, who has spent nearly all of his adult life either as the son of a governor or in statewide elected office himself, the narrow loss to Republican Dave McCormick felt a little more like the stripping away of a political birthright.
It was the first time since Casey ran for state auditor general in 1996 that voters showed him the door, and it was agonizingly close. McCormick won by 15,115 votes out of nearly 7 million cast when the count was completed.
According to state records, that 0.22 percentage point margin of victory made Pennsylvania history as the closest ever.
Casey conceded on Nov. 21, more than two weeks after Election Day and only after all counties had sorted through tens of thousands of provisional ballots and mail-in votes that were initially flagged because of some kind of voter error.
So what do you do with a senator, when he stops being a senator?
“I wish I had an update for you,” Casey said in a telephone interview last week, less than a month from wrapping up his 18-year tenure in the Senate. “I actually wish I had an update for myself. I’m really just beginning to take some time to reflect and get a sense of what I will do next.”
It’s notable that Casey’s not prepared to say that his own political career is over: “In the business that I’ve been in you’re taught at a very early age to never say never,” he said, when asked about the possibility of running for office again.
But the fact of the matter is, there is no obvious next political step for Casey, who at age 64 now, seems unready to be a retiree. Here’s why.
The governor’s office — for the Democratic Party — is spoken for till at least the 2030 election cycle. If Pennsylvania’s other U.S. Senator, John Fetterman, seeks re-election to his seat in 2028, that door also wouldn’t be expected to reopen till 2030, when McCormick comes up for re-election.
Casey will turn 70 in 2030, which in itself isn’t necessarily a show-stopper. Former Gov. Tom Wolf was two weeks shy of his 70th birthday when he won re-election in 2018. Several Pennsylvania senators, including Arlen Specter and Hugh Scott, won re-election in their 70s.
And while six years seems like an eternity to be on the sidelines in electoral politics, Casey knows full well that his Dad, Robert P. Casey Sr., waited eight between a defeat in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in 1978 and his successful run for that office in 1986.
Some national Democrats thinking out loud might love to see Casey consider a bid to help the party recapture the Scranton / Wilkes-Barre-anchored 8th District U.S. House seat lost by U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright this year as they try to retake the House majority in 2026.
That would be Casey’s fastest path back. But would a person who served three terms in the Senate really want to be a freshman in the House?
Casey wasn’t ready to make any public declarations this week.
“I don’t foresee any runs for public office in the near future,” he told PennLive.com. “But you know how this state is where people have been in and out of politics, so I guess you never take it off the table.”
The record he leaves
Casey’s record in the Senate is famously tilted toward small-ball achievements that often didn’t grab headlines and, in a way, allowed McCormick to build a campaign that often portrayed Casey as Democratic Party-bot with little to offer on the biggest issues of the day in Washington.
He was never likely to be leading voice on national security issues, leading negotiations on a federal tax bill or commanding the stage at a tense confirmation hearing.
“Yes, his office concentrated on smaller and parochial issues, but those issues matter to people,” one former Senate Republican staffer told PennLive Friday. “I always thought that Senator Casey’s office never lost sight of what was important and local.”
It was also widely noted, especially by Republicans, that Casey’s politics shifted to the left through the course of his career, leading more and more voters to say, by 2024, that he wasn’t the same candidate they voted for in 2006.
There is some empirical evidence to support that.
The monitoring service GovTrack.us noted while Casey ranked 18th out of 53 Democratic senators on a right-left continuum in 2013-14 (with 1 being the most conservative and 53 being the most liberal), he came in as 26th out of 47 in 2021-22, the most recent session for which its report card was available.
For all that, Casey said Thursday he is more than comfortable with his legacy, centered on trying to help children, seniors and others he considered society’s most vulnerable, and including passage of legislation that:
Allowed parents of children with intellectual and developmental disabilities to build savings accounts that can help provide a long-term financial footing for their children without risking present-day federal benefits.
Prior to passage of the ABLE Act in 2014, if those families saved more than $2,000 for schooling, an apartment or transportation to work for their children, they risked losing critical federal benefits, including medical and supplemental coverage.
Guaranteed workplace rights for women in pregnancy, by requiring public and private sector employers with staffs of 15 or more to grant pregnant workers “reasonable accommodation” for limitations related to their pregnancy.
“This law is simple: It ensures that pregnant workers have the right to reasonable accommodations, like a stool or water bottle, while at work. Women in Pennsylvania and around the country can breathe easy knowing they do not have to choose between their jobs and a healthy pregnancy,” Casey said last year when the bill took effect.
Bolstered efforts to fight sexual assault on college campuses by requiring “primary prevention and awareness programs for all incoming students and new employees;” ensuring that all students or staff reporting victimization receive a written inventory of available rights and services; and requiring all campus officials involved in response to sexual assault get annual training on these issues.
In his last term, Casey said he’s been especially pleased at helping to land federal funding for some major infrastructure projects.
That includes $500 million to help fund the planned reconstruction of the Interstate 83 bridge over the Susquehanna River in Harrisburg, but also scores of smaller projects that will help communities across the state tap into high-speed Internet and improve safe water supplies.
“He’s certainly not going to be remembered as this lion of the Senate,” summed up Jeff Brauer, a political science professor at Keystone College near Scranton who has long followed Casey’s career.
“It really was more about public service, helping the little guy or making a constituent’s life better… than being a national figure who’s going to be a regular on the major news programs.”
More gratitude than bitterness
Casey said he is grateful for the chance to have served in three statewide offices over 28 years. (Prior to unseating U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in 2006, Casey won election to two terms as state auditor general, and one as state treasurer.)
“When I think about the opportunities I had, I think it’s important to say to people how grateful I am that they gave me that opportunity,” Casey said. “That’s a long time.”
He is slowly getting his mind around being a former senator. His wife, Terese, four daughters and two grandsons and are helping.
“Mostly it’s just good to be home and to have more time with my family,” Casey said, referring his frequent statewide travels and Scranton-to-Washington commutes. “I’ve never had, at least since I was a young lawyer, a job where I’m home for a good part of the week.
“I think when I’m officially out of government starting in January I’m sure there will be periods when I’ll miss public service and miss the work. But I’ll have plenty to do and work that has to get done and obligations to meet.
“What I’m especially grateful for is not simply the privilege that people gave me for all those years, but also the fact that I’m able to end my time as a public official, at least for now, with not only strong family support but good health,” Casey continued.
Casey noted he had successful cancer surgery in February 2023 following a prostate cancer diagnosis, and that threat has been eliminated.
It’s not something he takes for granted, thinking about the heart-liver transplant his father was forced to have in 1993.
That ground-breaking surgery saved the elder Casey’s life, the son noted, but when he left office in January 1995 “he wasn’t feeling really well. He had periods of feeling good, but the effects of what had already happened to him before the transplant were evident.
“So I’m really blessed that I can face this next chapter of my life not having that type of health burden that he was carrying,” Casey said. “I’m pretty damn lucky.”
