(TNS) — President Joe Biden’s support among Pennsylvanian voters has risen in the last two months, but still remains in a virtual dead heat with former President Donald Trump in the nation’s most populous battleground state.
The Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday also gave U.S. Sen Bob Casey, D-Pa., a double-digit lead over Republican challenger David McCormick, who lost the 2022 GOP Senate primary to celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz.
Biden led Trump 49% to 46% — still within the survey’s 2.4-percentage point margin of error but the first time that the current president led the former president among Keystone State voters in 2024 polling. Trump held a two percentage point advantage in October and led by one point in June.
The differences? Biden narrowed the gap among self-described independents, trailing Trump by just 45% to 44%, compared with a 48% to 39% deficit in October.
And the president improved his edge among female voters — leading Trump by 22 points, 59% to 37%. In October, he had a six-point advantage, 49% to 43%.
But Trump boosted his advantage among male voters — leading Biden by 56% to 37%, a 19-point edge, in contrast to his 11-point lead two months ago, 51% to 42%.
Biden’s job approval ratings remained in negative territory, with 40% approving and 58% disapproving. In October, he was 41% positive and 55% negative.
Pennsylvania has supported the Democratic candidates in seven of the last eight presidential elections — the only exception being Trump in 2016.
”Pennsylvania, so crucial and so close, again takes center stage as the swing state with the electoral heft to decide the election,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said.
Casey, seeking a fourth term in Washington, led McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, 53% to 43%, in a race that could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate in January 2025. Mr, Casey held a six-point advantage, 50% to 44%, in October.
The incumbent — the son of a former governor — led McCormick by 16 points among independents, 55% to 39%. In October, McCormick led Casey. 45% to 44%.
”A big infusion of indie support makes one of the most closely watched Senate races in 2024 a not so tight race,” Malloy said.
Casey had a 51% job approval rating, with 31% disapproving. His approval rating was 48% in October, also with 31% disapproving.
Pennsylvania’s junior senator, Democrat John Fetterman, moved into positive territory with 45% approval and 42% disapproval ratings. In October, 48% disapproved of his performance in office while 41% approved.
Fetterman broke with many on the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and strongly supported Israel’s response to the attack launched Oct. 7 by Hamas, the Palestinian group considered a terrorist group by the U.S.
More than one-quarter of Pennsylvania voters said they thought more favorably of Fetterman for his position, while 14% said they thought less and 57% said it had no impact.
But the poll said the state’s most popular politician was Gov. Josh Shapiro, with 59% approving of the job he is doing and only 23% disapproving.
”Gov. Shapiro gets all the love with approval numbers other politicians would take in a Pennsylvania minute,” Malloy said.
The poll of 1,680 Pennsylvania registered voters was conducted Jan. 4-8.
