A year after nailing a series of long-shot bets that brought them back to the playoffs, the Penguins aren’t doubling down on the same players.

Kyle Dubas and the front office collected their money, walked to a different table and placed similar wagers on a new crop of free agents and trade targets.

Rather than waiting to see if Parker Wotherspoon’s breakout was a fluke, they traded him to Vegas for a younger defenseman in Kaedan Korczak.

Rather than signing Ryan Shea to a hard-earned long-term contract, they brought in Declan Carlile for two years and $3 million. Assistant general manager Jason Spezza explicitly named the former Tampa Bay blue-liner as a potential Shea replacement.

Rather than giving Anthony Mantha a lucrative extension after he scored 33 goals in his lone year in Pittsburgh, the Penguins signed Andrei Kuzmenko, another talented scorer coming off an injury, to a one-year contract.

Meanwhile, the Penguins haven’t made any big moves, leaving the team still firmly entrenched in the mushy middle of the NHL. It’s been a confusing offseason — although not an altogether unpredictable one. Dubas did say they might have to build the team “brick by boring brick,” and that’s exactly how it’s played out.

Let’s explore the cases for and against Dubas’ summer so far.

The case for

The Penguins have maintained total flexibility this offseason. Since the team is neither a contender nor a bottom-feeder, that’s not a bad idea.

They can see how the early part of the season goes and make decisions from there. If they get off to another hot start, perhaps the market is friendlier for a major trade then. Prices for both free agents and trade acquisitions have been astronomical this summer.

Since the Penguins haven’t sent away any premium picks or prospects, Dubas will have his full arsenal to pursue any star player who becomes available.

If things don’t go so well early on, the Penguins can explore selling veterans to contenders. Erik Karlsson, Byran Rust or Rickard Rakell would make for a pretty exciting deadline acquisition.

The Penguins’ flexibility extends to the cap sheet. They haven’t committed much long-term money, so they’ll have ample room to pay that next star someday — and to extend their own prospects as they reach their second contracts.

The Penguins signed Trevor van Riemsdyk to a contract with the same average annual value as Shea’s ($4 million). But they inked the former Washington Capitals defenseman to a two-year deal (Shea got five from Edmonton). During that window, they are highly unlikely to run into any cap issues.

And the unsung additions the Penguins have made could be quite helpful.

Korczak represents the type of mid-20s role player the team desperately needed, one who can contribute now while growing into more. Advanced analytics love Korczak and van Riemsdyk, particularly defensively.

The Penguins’ pro scouts have been on a roll recently, and they have been tracking Carlile for a while. He could be their next success story.

Kuzmenko and trade pickup Nick Robertson have more scoring upside than their recent production suggests. Spezza lauded how Kuzmenko will fit into their system.

None of these players are sure things or even obvious upgrades. But the Penguins’ hit rate last summer suggests that some of them will be.

Dubas can keep cycling through affordable depth pieces while biding his time for the win-now move.

The case against

To put it simply: What is this team doing? Which direction are they going? The early portion of the offseason has offered few answers.

They’re not really getting younger. The Penguins re-signed Evgeni Malkin, who will be 40 next season. Van Riemsdyk will be 35. Kuzmenko is 30. The team’s aging core is still intact. The path to playing time for prospects is still difficult, with competition added in the bottom six and right side of the defense.

They’re also not getting clearly better, at least not yet. The decisions not to retain Wotherspoon, Shea and presumably Mantha are all defensible, but those three played key roles in last season’s turnaround. The odds are low that Korczak, Kuzmenko and the rest will replicate their production and durability.

There have been trades across the league that would have made sense for the Penguins.

Pavel Dorofeyev is 25 and has scored 72 goals in the past two seasons. The New York Rangers acquired him for a prime package of picks. They gave him a massive extension, but an $11 million AAV for a player of that caliber is not unreasonable.

Elsewhere in the Metropolitan Division, the Capitals added three-time 30-goal scorer Jordan Kyrou for the 16th overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, middle-six forward Connor McMichael and a prospect.

The Penguins haven’t been able to make a similar deal — and they’ve seemingly erased some of their gains from last season. They found diamonds in the rough but are letting them go despite having ample cap space.

And more practically, the Penguins have some strange roster construction to sort out.

They have a bunch of solid options on the right side of their blue line, but the only returning regular on the left is Sam Girard.

They have a logjam of forwards competing for limited roster spots, and that could push youngsters such as Rutger McGroarty and Avery Hayes back to the American Hockey League.

At this point in the summer, Pittsburgh does not appear to be closer to a Stanley Cup or a rebuild.

The verdict

If the Penguins brought this rudderless roster into training camp, the offseason would be a failure. They would not have taken meaningful steps toward competing now or in the future.

The good news is they have two months to change that. They could get in on the offer sheet bonanza. They could close the deal on a Jason Robertson trade. They could take a flyer on Elias Pettersson. They could find their next Egor Chinakhov somewhere (what about Seattle’s Shane Wright?).

Dubas deserves the benefit of the doubt. He has both revitalized the Penguins’ prospect pool and made the NHL team better on the fly.

Maybe he strikes gold again with these low-risk bets. But at some point, he’s going to have to push a few more chips in.