Charlie Kirk’s murder and Donald Trump were on Obama’s mind at his Sept. 16 event, “A Conversation with Barack Obama” in Erie. A cheering throng of nearly 8,000 watched Obama flash his million-dollar smile, crack dad jokes and throw the gauntlet at Trump’s feet. It was a night of inflections delivered in a region amid one.

The 90-minute dialogue between Obama and veteran Beltway broadcaster Steve Scully was friendly but pointed. Noticeably greyer yet somehow ageless, Obama remains, as he once was, cool as the other side of the pillow. But he came to Erie to draw a line, or, more aptly, an inflection point. Accusing Trump of promoting “extremist views” threatening the nation’s “core values,” the former president warned of a “dangerous moment” when a White House deems that rules no longer apply.

The unparalleled words spoken by one president of another were as remarkable as the chosen venue, Erie, is unexpected. But Obama knows that the swing county of the nation’s swingiest state is where Democrats must begin their comeback.

Ethan Kibbe understands why Obama chose Erie. The former Erie-area journalist told me, “Erie matters. I think the former president understands that. There’s a reason he won two elections. And there’s a reason he’s coming to Erie as his first stop as he reenters the political arena to ramp up to 2028.”

In every presidential election since 1948 except one, as Erie County went so did the nation. The same holds in Pennsylvania; in 24 of the preceding 26 statewide races, Erie voted the way of the state.

‘A GUT PUNCH’

Sam Talarico admits that Erie gave Democrats “a gut punch last November.” The chair of the Erie County Democrats engineered a 73.8% voter turnout in the county, but it was Trump who eked to victory by 1,426 ballots. A rebound in Erie and Western Pennsylvania is utterly crucial for Democratic chances in Pennsylvania — and the nation.

Once a center for industry, the 25-county Western Pennsylvania region also used to be a Democratic stronghold. In 1992, 87% of Erie County voters voted and gave Bill Clinton a 14-point victory. Taking Erie and most every Western Pennsylvania county, Clinton also turned Pennsylvania blue in that election, a result Democrats repeated in the next five presidential races. In 2016, Trump ended that string by flipping Erie and the rest of Western Pennsylvania outside Pittsburgh. In so doing, he made Pennsylvania the nation’s most vital swing state — which makes Erie and Western Pennsylvania the most valuable parcel of political real estate in America.

Talarico thinks that Western Pennsylvania and Erie are “still a jump ball.” Tom Edde, Talarico’s GOP counterpart, agrees. He points to voter registration. Five years ago, Democrats held a 500,000 voter registration advantage in the state and a 20,000 person lead in Erie County. Today, it is essentially tied. As for why, Edde told me “It’s Trump. You know, Trump just does something to cause people to migrate either towards him or away. But I think most of the time it’s been kind of towards him.”

The numbers reveal that Edde is correct, at least with the 1.3 million Western Pennsylvanians who live outside Pittsburgh. In 2008, Obama won nearly 60% of the Allegheny and Erie County vote. And though John McCain won rural Western Pennsylvania, Obama battled him to near ties in Mercer and Greene counties and kept the margins in low single digits in Indiana, Lawrence, Warren and Washington counties. This, along with Obama’s urban margins, gave him the state by 10 points.

With Trump at the top of the ticket, the Western Pennsylvania map changed dramatically. In 2024, Trump took counties that were close in 2008 by 26 (Washington), 30 (Mercer), 34 (Lawrence) and 38 (Fayette) points. Sweeping rural Western Pennsylvania, Trump made Erie into the national bellwether. Winning it narrowly in 2016 and 2024, Trump lost it in 2020.

Erie is the linchpin and barometer of Democratic chances in Western Pennsylvania, the state, and nation. But Mike Ruzzi thinks Obama’s foray might be for naught. The Pittsburgh native and broadcast journalist who has covered the region for 43 years, told me, “I think it [Western Pennsylvania] has slipped [away]. I really believe that.”

In those decades Ruzzi has seen it all, but he admitted to me “the Trump base in this area is incredible. … There are signs, there are flags for Donald Trump, and I’ve never seen that before.”

THE TIPPING POINT

Obama sees political violence and Trump’s aggressive populism as an inflection point. But for many area voters, the tipping point came before 2016.

In 1950, the Rust Belt was home to 43% of all American jobs. Since that time, no single region in America has suffered more economic regression. Two waves of deindustrialization, in the 1980s and early 2000s, wiped out over 2 million Rust Belt industrial jobs. At the center of this catastrophe is Western Pennsylvania.

Yes, Pittsburgh has reinvented itself. But today, 34 of Pennsylvania’s 100 towns with the highest per capita poverty rates are in Western Pennsylvania. The city of Erie is home to the poorest zip code in the entire commonwealth. In regions outside Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County, only one Western Pennsylvania county experienced any substantial population growth from 1950-1992. Forecasters predict continued population decline between 5% and 15%. One survey of 18- to 29-year-old rural southwest Pennsylvanians revealed 70% planned to leave.

Kibbe took note of these struggles. He told me, “There’s an awful lot of people who feel like they’re putting in an incredible amount of work and can’t even keep their heads above water. At some point, doggy paddling for decades gets exhausting.”

Not surprisingly, Trump’s stance on free trade, tariffs and re-industrialization are popular in Erie and greater Western Pennsylvania. Ruzzi explained, “What I’ve heard from just talking to people out there, farmers, people in the excavating business who are working 12 hours a day, seven days per week, they had a belief. They still have a belief. He’s representing them. And they just believe in that. Yeah, it’s that simple.”

Eugene DePasquale sees Obama’s visit as a reminder for Democrats to borrow from the president’s playbook. The newly elected chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party told me, “[Obama] was seen as an agent of change. In the past election, Democrats were seen as the status quo.” To combat Trump’s “populist appeal,” the chairman wants his party “to talk about the economy and then deliver. You have to deliver on what you say.”

In his mind, Biden failed to do that. He admitted, “Biden was trying to tell us that inflation [in America] was better here than the rest of the world. It was frustrating. The only reason I didn’t ram my head through a wall is because I didn’t want to go through the concussion protocols.”

DePasquale is optimistic about Democratic chances in Pennsylvania’s 2026 midterms. With a popular incumbent governor, Josh Shapiro, at the top of ticket, he should be.

Talarico seconded that optimism by noting “The Democratic [voter] demographic has changed.” With more college educated voters in their ranks, this meant, “They generally pay more attention to politics and turn out a little more.” True as that may be, Lindsey Heldref sees the flip side of the coin: men. The chair of the Crawford County Democratic Party thinks 2024 was defined by “Guys are mad and showed up to vote against women.” The gender gap for Gen Z in 2024 was an all-time high, 19 points; or as Heldref told me “Gen Z boys and girls hate each other.”

The difference between winning and losing in Erie, Western Pennsylvania, statewide and the nation comes down to this. Heldref sees it. She laughed and admitted “Trump wins on this [gender conflict] because he is their spirit animal. They relate to him.” She also knows, “This divide, if permanent, is not winnable [for Democrats].”

In Western Pennsylvania’s Crawford County such a divide is fatal for Democrats. In 2008, Obama lost Crawford County 54%-44%. Sixteen years later, Trump rolled to a 69%-30% victory. The difference comes down to men and college. Nearly 45% of Allegheny County voters hold a college degree; Obama, Biden and Kamala Harris won it with near identical percentages. But in rural Western Pennsylvania the proportion of the college educated is a bit less than 1 in 5. In 2008, McCain and Obama tied 49%-49% with male voters. Nationally, Obama struggled with non-college men. But in the swing states, the combination of rigorous canvassing and personal campaigning, including a six-day Pennsylvania bus tour, kept the margins close.

BLEEDING MALE VOTERS

Seventeen years later, Democrats are bleeding non-college, male voters. Tom Edde reports that his GOP headquarters is swarmed by Democratic union men looking to switch parties. They tell him, “I just can’t stay with them [Democrats].” The numbers back Edde’s experience. In 2024, Trump won men 55%-43%. He took non-college, non-evangelical men 52%-44%. But non-college, evangelical white men vote Trump approached 90% in 2024.

Heldref fears Gen Z is pointing to a future where politics are defined by a gender divide that is especially acute in the Rust Belt. The collapse of industrial jobs hit men especially hard. Richard Reeves, the author of the widely lauded “Of Boys & Men,” observes, “The long-term story here is of growing wage gaps by social class for both men and women, but with working-class men faring worse of all in terms of trend.” Out of economic anger and cultural vertigo, working class men have swung hard toward Trump.

Obama’s inflection point, while arguably real, is fueled by an earlier tipping point that spawned the Trump era. Heldref, a military vet who is used to male-dominated spheres, sees both sides.

Ultimately, she understands that if Democrats want to fix what Obama identifies, they must understand the math and begin “to talk outside our circle.” But she questions whether liberals are willing to try.

She laughed and wondered about her fellow Democrats, “Is this about math or is this about your feelings?”

(Jeff H. Bloodworth is professor of American political history at Gannon University of Erie and a Fellow with the Truman National Security Project.)