The Gen Z vote in Pennsylvania
Presidential elections present voters with a mix of triumphs, scandals and defining moments. The 2024 election was no exception. From Donald Trump’s near-fatal rally in Butler to President Joe Biden’s 11th-hour exit from the race following his June debate performance, the news cycle shifted rapidly.
One of the biggest post-election surprises came from the data breakdown: a significant share of young voters, specifically Generation Z men, overwhelmingly supported Trump.
McKinsey & Company defines Generation Z as “people born between 1996 and 2010 … the first generation to grow up with the internet, shaped by the digital age, climate anxiety, financial uncertainty and the COVID-19 pandemic.” According to Tufts University’s Tisch College, Kamala Harris won the overall youth vote (ages 18-29) by a margin of 51% to 47%.
While this indicates a Democratic win among young voters, it also reflects a notable decrease from Biden’s 2020 performance, in which he won this demographic 61% to Trump’s sub-40%. Most critically, Gen Z men supported Trump over Harris by a margin of 56% to 42% — a striking 12-point gap.
A portion of Gen Z was ineligible to vote in 2020, which partially explains the shift in the 18-29 voting bloc. Still, Democrats historically performed well among young voters since the 26th Amendment lowered the national voting age to 18. This trend applied consistently across the country, including battleground states like Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is widely regarded as a pivotal swing state. In each of the past three presidential elections, the victor won the state by less than two percentage points. The state is politically divided: it has one Democrat and one Republican U.S. senator, and its House delegation is nearly evenly split with 10 Republicans and 7 Democrats. Republicans currently hold a 28-22 majority in the state Senate, while Democrats control the state House by a single seat. In 2024, NPR reported that young voters in Pennsylvania swung 18 points toward Trump compared to 2020, shrinking Harris’s margin among this group to just nine points — far less than Biden’s 20-point victory four years earlier.
Based on Tufts’ data and demographic modeling, Trump likely won Gen Z men in Pennsylvania by about five points.
While Republicans celebrate and Democrats regroup, both parties are reevaluating their appeal to young voters, especially young men. Though Harris maintained strong support among young women, Democrats remain increasingly alarmed by their loss of traction with their male counterparts. In response, Democratic strategists launched a $20 million initiative titled Speaking with American Men (SAM), aimed at addressing this trend. The results proved troublesome for Democrats: only 27% of young men viewed the Democratic Party favorably, compared to 43% who viewed the Republican Party positively.
Republicans, for their part, have introduced several policy proposals aimed at younger Americans. The “No Tax on Tips Act” would benefit many young workers in the service industry, while the “No Tax on Overtime Act” is designed to support those willing to work longer hours, particularly relevant for individuals prioritizing work over family or homeownership in the near term.
Focusing again on Pennsylvania, the Gen Z vote will continue to be decisive in future elections. The state faces a “brain drain” crisis, as young professionals in their 20s and 30s relocate to other states. As of 2019, Pennsylvania ranked 11th worst nationally in retaining young talent. Those leaving tend to be college-educated, while blue-collar workers in the trades or service industries remain. The Republican proposals — especially those involving tax relief — could appeal strongly to these voters.
While cities like Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Allentown and Lancaster may retain or attract professionals, tax incentives for overtime or tipped wages may resonate more deeply in post-industrial areas around Johnstown, Altoona, Erie and Scranton. Even in larger cities, such proposals could incentivize younger workers eager to capitalize on additional work opportunities.
Pennsylvania’s youth prioritize the following: job opportunities, competitive pay and community. When industry, like Volvo’s recent announcement to boost production in Franklin County, invests in Pennsylvania, the youth respond well. When those same youth see their overtime untaxed, they further favor the party pushing for such a platform. Finally, when young individuals appreciate their jobs and wages, they can further fuel their local economy, which in turn builds the community.
While the Republican Party, and Trump specifically, still need to forge inroads with many young people, the results of 2024 seem more permanent than a fluke, and the trajectory forward looks promising for the GOP to connect with the youngest generation of voting Americans.
(Matt Zupon is chairman of the Blair County Republican Party and state grassroots director of Pennsylvania Young Republicans.)