logo
Weather page
GET THE APP
ePaper
google_play
app_store
  • Login
  • E-Edition
  • News
  • Sports
  • Obituaries
  • Opinion
  • Classifieds
    • Place an Ad
    • All Listings
    • Jobs
  • Special Sections
  • Photo Gallery
  • Contests
  • Lifestyle/Entertainment
  • Games
    • News
      • Local News
      • PA State News
      • Nation/World
    • Sports
      • Local
      • College Sports
      • State
      • National
    • Obituaries
    • Opinion
      • News
        • Local News
        • PA State News
        • Nation/World
      • Sports
        • Local
        • College Sports
        • State
        • National
      • Obituaries
      • Opinion
    logo
    • Classifieds
      • Place an Ad
      • All Listings
      • Jobs
    • E-Edition
    • Subscribe
    • Login
      • Classifieds
        • Place an Ad
        • All Listings
        • Jobs
      • E-Edition
      • Subscribe
      • Login
    Home Comment & Opinion No one can grasp trillions: Making sense of federal spending
    No one can grasp trillions: Making sense of federal spending
    A screen displaying the U.S. national debt is seen in the Manhattan borough of New York in April 11. (AFP/Getty Images/TNS)
    Comment & Opinion, Opinion
    June 30, 2025

    No one can grasp trillions: Making sense of federal spending

    LOS ANGELES (TNS) — I’m a finance professor at UCLA, so let’s talk finance. Which numbers are more meaningful to you?

    Having $50 to $100 cash in your pocket (rough average for an American) or knowing the total U.S. currency in circulation is $2.4 trillion?

    Owing $7,300 on your credit card (average balance of those who don’t pay it off every month) or envisioning the total U.S. credit card debt of $1.2 trillion?

    Being $250,000 in debt on your home (average among American consumers with a mortgage) or seeing that the nation’s total residential consumer mortgage debt is $12.8 trillion?

    Holding $250,000 in your 401(k) or IRA account (average for baby boomers, now old enough to need it soon) or knowing the total U.S. savings in such accounts is about $27 trillion?

    Receiving a monthly Social Security check of $2,000 (the average) or considering the balance of the Social Security trust fund at $2.7 trillion?

    I’ve been researching and teaching economics for more than 30 years, and still I can’t wrap my head around trillions of dollars. I’m guessing you can’t, either — and neither can our senators and representatives who determine the federal budget. And yet, our government insists on communicating with us in this unfathomable language.

    Worse, even our best media outlets rarely translate the government’s incomprehensible abstractions into understandable numbers, giving us sentences like this one from the Wall Street Journal: “President Trump’s tax-and-spending megabill would increase budget deficits by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, compared with doing nothing, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate released Wednesday.” (By the way, that figure has been revised to $2.8 trillion as of June 18 — as if the human mind could comprehend the difference between those boggling figures.)

    And so I want to help people understand both our federal budget deficit and the resulting national debt, as well as our government’s free-spending ways. (Both parties are to blame; no need for politics here.)

    The national debt today stands at about $37 trillion. This means that each of our 347 million people is on the hook for about $110,000, or about 2.75 years the median income of $40,000 per year.

    Of course, not every U.S. resident earns income or pays income tax. With “only” 154 million taxpayers, this means that the average taxpayer’s piece of the $37-trillion federal debt is about $240,000, or six years of the median income.

    Think of this as your share of our federal debt. The government may have borrowed it, but ultimately you are on the hook for it. Feel better now? Probably not. For most people, learning that you owe $240,000 is a lot more concerning than hearing that the national debt is $37 trillion.

    And your piece of our collective problem is still growing. Each year, our federal government takes in about $35,000 per taxpayer ($5 trillion) and spends about $45,000 per taxpayer ($6.75 trillion). Lawmakers are currently not paying down our debt but adding about $10,000 per taxpayer every year to our already outstanding balance of about $240,000.

    Unfortunately, we have another problem. Our outstanding debt was issued at low interest rates (around 2.3% per year). This is about to change. When it comes due, refinance interest rates will likely be more like 4% per year. Federal spending on interest will rise from the current level of about $6,000 a year per taxpayer to more like $10,000.

    Back to the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” that the Wall Street Journal was reporting on. Roughly speaking, over 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the legislation would add a total deficit of $18,000 per taxpayer. Whatever debt balance we expected to reach in about 10 years, under this new budget, we would be expected to reach that debt in nine years.

    In itself, debt isn’t so bad. For instance, as your home’s value grows, the mortgage percentage shrinks. If your income rises, that helps, too. Our 25-year-old business school students, who have no current income but take on a six-figure debt, can typically comfortably pay off their debts and support a nice lifestyle, too.

    Unfortunately, not so for our federal malaise. Our income and tax bases are growing nowhere near as fast as our obligations.

    With growing deficits and rising interest rates, we are instead accelerating our obligations. Today, we are spending about $850 billion a year on our military, or about $5,500 per taxpayer. Interest payments are just about to exceed that.

    Adding in our running deficits, even if we assume that we can greatly increase our economic output, tax base and tax intake, and that there will be no recession, and that tariffs will cover about one-third of our deficits (a combination that few economists believe), we are still heading straight for a date with a metaphorical bankruptcy judge. Fortunately, this is legally impossible.

    So what can possibly happen?

    First, we could get exceedingly lucky: Economic growth could reach higher than it has ever been. Maybe we can all collectively become more innovative (and less hamstrung by our abundant self-inflicted inefficient policies, rules and regulations). I wouldn’t count on it.

    Second, our politicians could raise taxes, curb spending or do both. However, we have no collective appetite for this. (Those actions could slow growth to the point that they become counterproductive.)

    Third, we could “print” money. However, this would leave us in a fiscal situation similar to that of many developing nations, with galloping inflation and untrustworthy currency. Who would then lend us money? It surely wouldn’t “make America great again.”

    Living beyond our means is not a Republican or a Democratic problem. Our parties may disagree about what to spend the money on, but both show by their actions that they agree spending more is better than spending less. Politicians are reflections of their electorates, and we the people are not ready for any pain. If our voters can begin to comprehend our problem, we’ll be on our first step toward a solution.

    (Ivo Welch is a professor of finance and economics at the Anderson Graduate School of Management at UCLA.)

    {"to-print":"To print", "bradfordera-website":"Website"}
    By IVO WELCH Los Angeles Times

    The Bradford Era

    Local & Social
    Latest news for you
    CARE for Children 32nd golf tournament set for Aug. 3
    Local Sports
    CARE for Children 32nd golf tournament set for Aug. 3
    Jo Wankel 
    June 30, 2025
    The Pennhills Club will host the 32nd Annual CARE ‘fore’ Children Golf Tournament on Sunday, August 3. The tournament is a four-person scramble with a...
    Read More...
    An 84-game season is among the changes coming to the NHL as part of the new labor deal
    National Sports
    An 84-game season is among the changes coming to the NHL as part of the new labor deal
    STEPHEN WHYNO AP Hockey Writer 
    June 30, 2025
    An 84-game season is coming to the NHL as part of an extension of the collective bargaining agreement that has been tentatively agreed to by the leagu...
    Read More...
    NCAA considering proposal to allow college athletes, staff to bet on professional sports
    College Sports, National Sports
    NCAA considering proposal to allow college athletes, staff to bet on professional sports
    Jo Wankel 
    June 30, 2025
    INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — The NCAA is considering a proposal that would allow athletes and staff members to bet on professional sports and shift enforcement...
    Read More...
    Throttles meet mud
    Local Sports, Outdoors
    Throttles meet mud
    June 30, 2025
    DUKE CENTER — The hills of Otto Township echoed with a roar of engines Saturday as the Coast Riders held their second annual fundraising event to bene...
    Read More...
    {"to-print":"To print", "bradfordera-website":"Website"}
    Throttles meet mud
    Local News, Local Sports, Outdoors
    Throttles meet mud
    June 30, 2025
    A rider takes on the mud bounty hole timed contest during the 2025 Coast Riders trail maintenance fundraiser held Saturday in Duke Center. See Sports ...
    Read More...
    {"to-print":"To print", "bradfordera-website":"Website"}
    Shapiro anticipates deal ‘very soon’ as lawmakers blow through budget deadline
    PA State News
    Shapiro anticipates deal ‘very soon’ as lawmakers blow through budget deadline
    June 30, 2025
    HARRISBURG (AP) — Gov. Josh Shapiro and Pennsylvania's politically divided Legislature will miss Pennsylvania's legal deadline to pass a budget for th...
    Read More...
    {"to-print":"To print", "bradfordera-website":"Website"}
    ePaper
    google_play
    app_store
    This Week's Ads
    Current e-Edition
    ePaper
    google_play
    app_store
    Already a subscriber? Click the image to view the latest e-edition.
    Don't have a subscription? Click here to see our subscription options.
    Mobile App

    Download Now

    The Bradford Era mobile app brings you the latest local breaking news, updates, and more. Read the Bradford Era on your mobile device just as it appears in print.

    ePaper
    google_play
    app_store

    Help Our Community

    Please help local businesses by taking an online survey to help us navigate through these unprecedented times. None of the responses will be shared or used for any other purpose except to better serve our community. The survey is at: www.pulsepoll.com $1,000 is being awarded. Everyone completing the survey will be able to enter a contest to Win as our way of saying, "Thank You" for your time. Thank You!

    Get in touch with The Bradford Era
    Submit Content
    • Submit News
    • Letter to the Editor
    • Place Wedding Announcement
      • Submit News
      • Letter to the Editor
      • Place Wedding Announcement
    Advertise
    • Place Birth Announcement
    • Place Anniversary Announcement
    • Place Obituary Call (814) 368-3173
      • Place Birth Announcement
      • Place Anniversary Announcement
      • Place Obituary Call (814) 368-3173
    Subscribe
    • Start a Subscription
    • e-Edition
    • Contact Us
      • Start a Subscription
      • e-Edition
      • Contact Us
    CMG | Community Media Group
    Illinois
    • Hancock Journal-Pilot
    • Iroquois Times-Republic
    • Journal-Republican
    • The News-Gazette
      • Hancock Journal-Pilot
      • Iroquois Times-Republic
      • Journal-Republican
      • The News-Gazette
    Indiana
    • Fountain Co. Neighbor
    • Herald Journal
    • KV Post News
    • Newton Co. Enterprise
    • Rensselaer Republican
    • Review-Republican
      • Fountain Co. Neighbor
      • Herald Journal
      • KV Post News
      • Newton Co. Enterprise
      • Rensselaer Republican
      • Review-Republican
    Iowa
    • Atlantic News Telegraph
    • Audubon Advocate-Journal
    • Barr’s Post Card News
    • Burlington Hawk Eye
    • Collector’s Journal
    • Fayette County Union
    • Ft. Madison Daily Democrat
    • Independence Bulletin-Journal
    • Keokuk Daily Gate City
    • Oelwein Daily Register
    • Vinton Newspapers
    • Waverly Newspapers
      • Atlantic News Telegraph
      • Audubon Advocate-Journal
      • Barr’s Post Card News
      • Burlington Hawk Eye
      • Collector’s Journal
      • Fayette County Union
      • Ft. Madison Daily Democrat
      • Independence Bulletin-Journal
      • Keokuk Daily Gate City
      • Oelwein Daily Register
      • Vinton Newspapers
      • Waverly Newspapers
    Michigan
    • Iosco County News-Herald
    • Ludington Daily News
    • Oceana’s Herald-Journal
    • Oscoda Press
    • White Lake Beacon
      • Iosco County News-Herald
      • Ludington Daily News
      • Oceana’s Herald-Journal
      • Oscoda Press
      • White Lake Beacon
    New York
    • Finger Lakes Times
    • Olean Times Herald
    • Salamanca Press
      • Finger Lakes Times
      • Olean Times Herald
      • Salamanca Press
    Pennsylvania
    • Bradford Era
    • Clearfield Progress
    • Courier Express
    • Free Press Courier
    • Jeffersonian Democrat
    • Leader Vindicator
    • Potter Leader-Enterprise
    • The Wellsboro Gazette
      • Bradford Era
      • Clearfield Progress
      • Courier Express
      • Free Press Courier
      • Jeffersonian Democrat
      • Leader Vindicator
      • Potter Leader-Enterprise
      • The Wellsboro Gazette
    © Copyright The Bradford Era 43 Main St, Bradford, PA  | Terms of Use  | Privacy Policy
    Powered by TECNAVIA