PITTSBURGH (TNS) — A year ago, at a meeting of Pennsylvania’s clean energy advocates, phrases like “the energy transition is here” and “unprecedented investment” were heard. There were billions of dollars in play and a clear direction on the kinds of energy projects that the government would fund, not just during the Biden administration but in the years following it through the tax credits embedded in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA).

Today, those tax credits — for solar, wind, hydrogen, battery storage, energy efficiency and electric vehicles — are on the chopping block of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — a mega piece of legislation making its way through Congress.

Now, when the state’s clean energy champions hold a meeting, it’s likely to warn that the momentum that seemed unstoppable a year ago is crashing.

Changes to energy tax credits are just one part of a the bill that is being shepherded by Republicans through the reconciliation process — meaning, it needs a simple majority, or 51 votes, to pass the Senate. The House of Representatives passed it last month. The legislation delivers on one of President Donald Trump’s campaign promises to, if not repeal, then significantly neuter the IRA by accelerating the 10-year timeline of some of these credits to, in some instances, less than a year.

The effect would be to essentially eliminate tax credits for new and used electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, for building upgrades in residential and commercial properties and for clean hydrogen (which underpins some the projects proposed in the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub, Arch2. That effort, which qualified for up to $925 million in federal energy funds, appears dormant).

“Let’s not forget that these tax credits are popular, highly popular,” said Jeaneen Zappa, executive director of the Keystone Energy Efficiency Alliance, standing in front of a podium in the portico of the City County Building earlier this month and surrounded by signs that read: “Energy Freedom for Pennsylvania.”

According to IRS data from 2023 — the latest available — some 158,500 Pennsylvanians claimed the home energy efficiency tax credit. That same year, more than 11,000 tax payers in the state claimed the electric vehicle credit.

“This isn’t about ideology. This is about investment and jobs,” said Joe Morinville, president of Green Tree-based EIS Solar. “When the same House of Representatives passed the IRA a few short years ago, laying out a 10-year window of predictable energy policy, we did what was asked of us by our country: we invested, we bought trucks, we hired people, we grew our companies.

“The first Trump administration asked manufacturers to bring the factories back to America, and the IRA did just that,” he continued. “Over 200 clean energy manufacturing plants are operational or under construction, and now their future is uncertain, as [is] ours.”

Morinville said if the reconciliation bill is enacted as it currently stands, he will be forced to lay off some of his 50 employees.

“How could a business operate in America under these conditions? Tariff on, tariff off, policy on, policy off. We cannot plan or manage our companies in this kind of legislative schizophrenia.”

Clean energy groups, shaken by the idea that the energy future that seemed so grounded in the federal government could turn to quicksand, have been scheduling an increasing number of events as the budget bill approaches Trump’s preferred wrap-up date of July 4.

In a virtual meeting last week sponsored by the Harrisburg-based Keystone Research Center, Jesse Lee, a consultant who served served as a senior communications advisor to the National Economic Council under President Biden, argued that it’s foolish to throttle renewables at a time when electricity demand is growing rapidly. They are the only resources that can be built quickly, he explained.

“Even if you talk about nuclear and natural gas — you’re talking about 7-10 year timelines getting anything on the grid,” he said.

As for the AI boom that Pennsylvania is chasing — the topic of Sen. Dave McCormick’s Energy and AI conference at CMU next month with President Trump — “There is no way to make the equation work without these clean energy tax credits,” Lee said.

In a letter that advocates hand delivered to the offices of Sen. John Fetterman and Sen. Dave McCormick earlier this month, they warned that the state’s ability to ramp up electricity to serve data centers would be hampered if the credits faded.

Sharon Pillar, executive director of the Pennsylvania Solar Center in the Hill District, was one of those advocates who took the message to the senators’ offices, wearing an American flag scarf draped over her red jacket.

The Pennsylvania Solar Center has nearly 200 projects in its queue, she said, with two dozen schools among them. Schools typically don’t have money on hand to install panels and the tax credits help with financing.

“It’s not that they couldn’t go forward. But the saving estimate for them is so much less without the federal incentive,” she said.

Marc Mondor’s architecture firm Evolve EA has been using the commercial energy efficiency building tax credit since it was enacted in 2005, long before the IRA came along. It allows companies like his to deduct part of the cost of designing an energy-efficient building. The IRA expanded this tax credit, as well as a similar measure for energy-efficient new-home construction. Now, both of these long-term credits find themselves swept up in the elimination frenzy.

Mondor said he’s already seen a chill in expansion planning among Evolve’s customers, which include universities that are dealing with other pullbacks from the federal government.

When resources for energy efficiency taper, it’s often harder for organizations to find funding for non-sexy work, like putting more insulation into walls, Mondor said.

“No one’s going to pay to endow a pump,” he said.