There is no avoiding the fact that Donald Trump is a divisive politician. RealClearPolitics’ historical average of his national favorability polling shows his first (July 16, 2016) favorability reading as 26.3%-61.3%. On Jan. 1, 2017, just days before he took office following his November 2016 upset win, he was still underwater by nearly 4 percentage points. Even around the time of his 2025 inauguration, Trump’s favorability was barely positive at 48.1%-47.9%.

Trump’s popularity has never been a good predictor of his electoral performance or the public’s appraisal of his job performance. But if you listen to the establishment media’s prevailing narrative, Trump’s divisiveness, his second term’s frenetic pace, and especially his tariffs have coincided to catch up to him.

According to RCP’s average of Trump’s national job approval polling, on May 12, the day the administration announced a 90-day ceasefire in the tariff war with China (and before this hiatus could have an impact on his polling numbers), Trump’s differential was 45.8%-50.1% — a net negative-4.3 percentage points.

However, a closer look at the 14 surveys used in the RCP average paints a more complex picture.

The net spread of Trump’s job approval rating ran from a positive-6 percentage points (Rasmussen) to a negative-12 percentage points (NewsNation’s poll by DDHQ). Such a large 18 percentage-point difference merits closer examination.

First, let’s look at the very different results based on poll respondents. Rasmussen Reports sampled “likely voters.” As the label suggests, these are the most motivated voters — those most likely to vote. Only one other (Trafalgar) of the 14 polls sampled likely voters; its net was a positive-2 percentage points.

Therefore, averaging the two likely voter poll results, Trump’s job approval/disapproval rating was 49%-45%, for a 4 percentage-point positive margin. It is also startlingly close to Trump’s 2024 November popular vote total.

The next category of respondents is “registered voters.” As the name implies, these are simply Americans who are registered to vote. Nine of the 14 RCP polls queried registered voters. The spread of these polls went from a tie on Trump’s job approval/disapproval (Quantus Insights and Emerson) to DDHQ’s minus-12. Averaging the nine polls of registered voters yields a net negative job approval of 4.8 percentage points — virtually a mirror reversal from the likely voter average.

The last category of voters polled is “adults,” simply those old enough to vote. Three of the 14 polls sampled only adults, and their results were all in negative territory: from a minus-5 to a minus-11 percentage points. Averaging these three poll results, Trump’s net job approval is minus-8.7 percentage points — roughly double the average from registered voter polls.

Looking at the quality of the respondents, there is a very clear breakdown from likely voters’ positive appraisal of Trump’s job performance (plus-4 percentage points); to registered voters’ moderately negative appraisal (4.8 percentage points); to adults’ very negative appraisal (8.7 percentage points).

But what of the quality of the pollsters themselves? This too breaks down similarly. ActiVote released a March 25, 2025, “2024 Most Valuable Pollster (MVP) Rankings,” a rating or “‘scorecard’ to indicate which pollsters did well in 2024, and which pollsters did not.”

The breakdown according to pollster performance is strikingly similar to the breakdown by respondent type. With a lower score equating to a better polling performance, the two “likely voter” pollsters had an average ranking of 4.5. The nine “registered voter” pollsters had an average 27.4 ranking. And the three “adult voter” pollsters had a 33.3 ranking.

Not only did Trump poll better with the most motivated respondents, he also did markedly better with the higher-ranked pollsters.

To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of Trump’s demise in the polls are greatly exaggerated. It isn’t the first time a general overview of polls has gotten him wrong. It likely won’t be the last.

There’s a reason why Trump is able to disregard polls with impunity; and there’s all the more reason we should scrutinize them carefully.

(J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left” from RealClear Publishing and has over three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, the Office of Management, and Budget, and representing a Fortune 20 company.)