Recession fears making GOP lawmakers uneasy?
WASHINGTON (TNS) — The impact of political landslides and the resulting mandates wear off, even when they are substantial. It will certainly happen when a president exaggerates his extent, as recent chief executives have done.
So it is hardly surprising that some of President Donald Trump’s less hard-core MAGA troops are beginning to show some restiveness at the prospect of casting votes to cut federal programs in their states or districts.
I’m old enough to have covered the epic 89th Congress when even President Lyndon B. Johnson started losing support in Congress despite winning the 1964 election with 61% and having majorities of 295-140 in the House and 68-32 in the Senate.
An important factor was the impact of his ill-fated decision to increase American military involvement in Vietnam.
Trump enjoys nowhere near Johnson’s majorities and mandate. His House majority is 220-215 and his Senate margin is 53-47.
And his Vietnam equivalent is the increasing fear his incitement of a trade war is pushing the economy into a recession, although there was a boost in the stock market Thursday after Trump announced trade deals with the United Kingdom.
A result is uneasiness among potentially vulnerable members for some of the provisions GOP leaders are seeking to codify Trump’s proposals for massive new tax cuts and historically sharp cuts in domestic spending.
It comes as the narrow GOP congressional majorities face action in the coming months on at least three separate packages — plus the legal ceiling on the national debt. They are: THE FIRST RECISSIONS PACKAGE It’s the first of the measures by which Trump will seek retroactive congressional approval of the unilateral program and agency cuts he has made, mostly at the behest of Elon Musk’s U.S. DOGE Service.
THE ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’ That’s the massive budget “reconciliation” bill to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cut, add new reductions he promised in the campaign and provide off-setting spending cuts, including taking more than $1 trillion out of Medicaid, food stamps and other “safety net” programs that primarily benefit the poor, the children and the elderly.
FUNDING THE GOVERNMENT By fall, Congress needs to pass the annual appropriations bills that provide the actual funds for government programs. Those decisions will show how far lawmakers will go in cutting domestic programs.
THE DEBT CEILING By summer or fall, GOP leaders will need to pass yet another increase in the legal limit on the national debt, currently $36.1 trillion, possibly as part of one of the other bills. Such measures usually require Democratic votes since some Republicans regularly refuse to support them, a potential problem given Democratic anger over Trump’s spending cuts.
The recissions bill should be the easiest, given its small size ($9.3 billion) and the fact it mostly approves Trump‘s elimination of the separate Agency for International Development and cuts in the foreign aid programs it administers.
But nothing in this Congress is easy. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, the Senate Appropriations Committee chair, opposes cutting PEPFAR, a program to combat HIV/AIDS abroad that was started under President George W. Bush and has enjoyed bipartisan support. Under recissions rules, the Senate could vote separately to spare it. But it’s merely a preliminary to the “reconciliation” bill. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., vowed to pass it in the House this month, but that remains uncertain, given the signs of some GOP resistance to both spending and tax provisions.
A dozen moderate House Republicans, many from “swing” districts that are prime Democratic 2026 targets, wrote the chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee that they won’t support “any reduction in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations.”
That prompted the chairman, Rep. Brett Guthrie, R-Ky., to delay Thursday’s session to consider its proposed $880 billion in Medicaid savings. Similarly, the Agriculture Committee delayed consideration of its initial plan for saving $230 billion by pushing some food stamp costs onto the states.
Johnson said he can achieve the Medicaid savings by ridding the program of “waste, fraud and abuse” and instituting work requirements that would not cut the benefits individual recipients receive.
“We can save over $1.5 trillion without touching a dime of the benefit funding,” agreed Budget Committee chairman Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Tx., on Fox News Sunday. But that does not preclude cuts that would indirectly affect benefits; for example, the nonpartisan Commonwealth Fund said work requirements would reduce health care access for thousands.
Meanwhile, GOP lawmakers from hightax states like California, New Jersey and New York say they won’t support any bill without substantial relief from the 2017 provision limiting the deductibility of state and local taxes.
The small GOP majorities give leverage to small groups of holdouts in both the House and Senate on both sides of Trump’s spending and tax cut proposals. But it remains unclear if these reluctant members will, in the end, buck the president and cast votes to sink the bill.
Whatever happens now, Congress will likely face another brutal bipartisan budget showdown this September over funding the government starting October 1.
Appropriations Committee chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla., says he hopes the House will pass all 12 funding bills by the August recess, but the requirement for 60 votes ensures a Senate impasse.
By then, a recession could complicate the job of the White House and GOP leaders as lawmakers from competitive districts and states look toward an election where Trump may not help them.
That’s why GOP leaders are in such a hurry to act.
(Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.)
Carl P. Leubsdorf
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