HARRISBURG (TNS) — Despite increasing pressure on Pennsylvania lawmakers to legalize recreational marijuana, adult residents likely won’t be purchasing cannabis without a medical card anytime soon.

Each year, legislators in the Pennsylvania House and Senate introduce bills to legalize marijuana for adults 21 and over. Proposals range from regulating and taxing adult-use cannabis similarly to neighboring states, such as New York and New Jersey, to selling marijuana through state-run liquor stores. However, none have gained significant traction, largely due to Republican opposition — particularly in the GOP-controlled Senate.

Since taking office in 2023, Gov. Josh Shapiro has included tax revenue from adult-use cannabis in every state budget in case lawmakers pass legalization. During his annual budget address in January, Shapiro urged lawmakers once again to approve legalization as Pennsylvania faces a projected $4.5 billion budget shortfall. According to his administration’s estimates, a legal marijuana industry could generate $1.3 billion in tax revenue within its first five years. WILL MARIJUANA BE LEGALIZED IN PA. THIS YEAR?

It remains uncertain — just as in previous years. Even if lawmakers legalize recreational marijuana in 2025, sales likely wouldn’t begin until at least 2026.

While some Democrats insist there is “broad support” within their party for legalization, Pennsylvania Republicans continue to indicate they are not ready to move forward.

Two bills are expected to be introduced in the Pennsylvania House and Senate in the coming months. The Senate bill would legalize recreational marijuana under a model similar to those in neighboring states, while the House bill would incorporate the state’s existing network of state-run liquor stores.

Philadelphia state Rep. Rick Krajewski and Pittsburgh state Rep. Dan Frankel announced plans to introduce their bill in a December 2024 memo. Their proposal largely mirrors legalization models in other states, with one key exception: retail sales. Under their bill, adult-use cannabis sales would be overseen by Pennsylvania’s Fine Wine & Good Spirits stores, with provisions allowing for smaller retail operations to include consumption areas similar to Amsterdam-style cafes, Krajewski said in an interview.

Krajewski acknowledged that many Pennsylvanians are frustrated with the state-run liquor store system — more than half of voters oppose it — but argued that private retail markets in other states have favored well-funded, multistate cannabis companies over small-business owners.

In New York, many cannabis entrepreneurs told The New York Times that they fell into a “debt trap” after the state touted affordable loans, which one New York lawmaker later described as “predatory.” Of the 150 operators enrolled in New York’s Cannabis Social Equity Investment Fund, only 22 have opened dispensaries. Many are struggling with high-interest loans, while the state has begun scaling back financial support, The Times reported.

“It’s an extremely difficult market to compete in, particularly if you’ve been directly impacted by the War on Drugs,” Krajewski said. “Many people are told this kind of pipe dream that, ‘You’re going to make it big, open a dispensary,’ and then smaller operators fall into cycles of debt or they’re bought out by big investors who can withstand the turbulence of a newly legalized market.”

THE SENATE’S APPROACH TO LEGALIZATION The Senate bill, co-sponsored by Sen. Dan Laughlin and Sen. Sharif Street, continues the lawmakers’ years-long push for legalization under a model similar to New Jersey’s. This is the third time they have introduced a version of the bill, which includes provisions for record expungement of marijuana convictions, social equity funding for small businesses, and tax structures aimed at preventing an “overly burdensome” tax rate. “There are both Republicans and Democrats in the House and the Senate who support our approach,” said Street, who has been pushing legalization even before his cosponsorship with Laughlin. “I think we’re closer than we’ve ever been and it is a very real possibility for this year — I’m cautiously optimistic.”

HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FROM LEGALIZATION TO SALES?

Even if Pennsylvania lawmakers legalize marijuana in 2025, recreational sales likely wouldn’t begin until at least 2026 or even 2027.

Other states have taken months or years to establish regulatory agencies, licensing processes, and sales infrastructure: • New Jersey: 14 months from legalization on Feb. 22, 2021, to legal sales beginning on April 21, 2022.

• New York: 21 months from legalization on March 31, 2021, to legal sales beginning on Dec. 29, 2022.

• Delaware: 22 months and counting since legalization on April 23, 2023, with sales expected in spring 2025. However, license holders have expressed frustration over delays and a lack of a clear timeline, WHYY reported.

WHAT ARE THE CONCERNS ABOUT LEGAL MARIJUANA? Republican lawmakers and other stakeholders cite logistical concerns over rolling out an adult-use cannabis market, especially after Spotlight PA investigations revealed issues with Pennsylvania’s medical marijuana program, including a lack of transparency, inadequate doctor oversight, and inconsistent patient care.

“In Pennsylvania we already have a medical marijuana program in place which was not implemented well and could benefit from potential changes to make that program more airtight, efficient, and productive,” said Senate Majority Leader Joe Pittman.

Concerns over impaired driving also play a role. Attorney General Dave Sunday has cited “potential harms” from marijuana use, particularly its impact on driving under the influence.

Studies offer mixed conclusions on whether legalization increases impaired driving. However, data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration indicates that more Americans are driving with marijuana in their system. Meanwhile, alcohol-related impaired driving has steadily declined for decades. In 2022, daily marijuana users in the U.S. outnumbered daily drinkers for the first time.

Within the Republican caucus, there is no consensus on how to proceed with legalization, Pittman said. “My obligation as Senate Majority Leader is to try to make sure I understand where the prevailing view of our caucus is with our 28 members, and currently I do not see a prevailing view for legalization of recreational marijuana within our caucus.”

How much money would rec marijuana bring?

Shapiro estimates that a regulated, taxed cannabis market could generate $535.6 million in revenue in its first year, primarily from licensing fees and sales taxes. By year five, total revenue could reach $1.3 billion.

For comparison, New Jersey and New York each surpassed $1 billion in total sales revenue within two years of legalizing recreational cannabis.

According to The Inquirer’s reporting, Shapiro’s 2025 estimate represents a 3,000% increase from his previous budget projections in 2024. After discussions with officials in New Jersey and New York — where first-year adult-use cannabis sales generated $555.6 million and more than $150 million, respectively — Shapiro revised his projections upward.The Inquirer has a full breakdown of how other states’ marijuana revenue could stack up against Pennsylvania.

However, under Shapiro’s tax proposals, Pennsylvania could have some of the highest cannabis prices in the region, with a 20% tax on adultuse products. The state’s medical marijuana program already has some of the nation’s highest cannabis prices.