At least on the surface, Spencer Horwitz isn’t necessarily the prototypical first baseman.
The 5-foot-10, 190-pound Horwitz — whom the Pirates acquired late Tuesday night from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for right-hander Luis Ortiz and left-handed pitching prospects Michael Kennedy and Josh Hartle — can also play second base and the outfield. He’s known more for his ability to work quality at-bats than drive the ball with authority.
But Horwitz, who is a bit of a late-blooming prospect at 27 years old, is an enticing pickup for the Pirates for a few reasons. Perhaps none is more important than Horwitz having six years of club control, meaning he won’t be arbitration eligible until 2027, nor can he become a free agent until the 2031 season.
It was a pretty price to pay for general manager Ben Cherington, but he’s hopeful Horwitz can be a stalwart at first base for years to come.
“We believe in the bat, we believe in the person,” Cherington said on Wednesday at the winter meetings in Dallas. “We believe he has a chance to be part of that solution. And glad that we have a chance to have him for a while.”
Inside the numbers
Should Horwitz stick in Pittsburgh and provide the Pirates a long-term answer at first base that’s proven fleeting since Josh Bell was traded after the 2020 season, what should be reasonably expected?
The Timonium, Md., native is a solid, but not spectacular athlete. He won’t win any races (no stolen bases across 112 career MLB games), but Horwitz did play hockey in high school. He’s a capable defender in the outfield, as well as at second base, and should be an above-average defensive first baseman.
Despite not having the strongest of arms, Horwitz has a slick glove. Per Baseball Savant, Horwitz saved two Outs Above Average (OAA) and only made one error at the position. Across parts of 85 career MLB games, Horwitz has committed just six total errors at any spot on the field.
Regardless of what Horwitz provides with his bat, he should be a defensive upgrade over last year’s duo of Rowdy Tellez and Connor Joe, which combined for minus-3 OAA. But at a position that necessitates offensive contributions, Horwitz’s work in the batter’s box will be critical.
A three-year starter at Radford University (Va.) before the Blue Jays selected him in the 24th round back in 2019, Horwitz has hit at every level of the game so far. Among American League rookies with 350 or more plate appearances last season, Horwitz ranked first in batting average (.265) and on-base percentage (.357), as well as second in OPS (.790).
Those figures are steps back from the ones he put up in the minors, but not by a wide margin. Across parts of five minor-league seasons, Horwitz has hit a combined. 307 with a robust .884 OPS. Not to mention, Horwitz has a knack for avoiding strikeouts, putting the ball in play in working walks.
On the flip side, Horwitz doesn’t regularly produce hard contact. His average bat speed of 69.5 mph last season was in the 17th percentile of all qualifying MLB hitters last season, per Baseball Savant. In a similar vein, Horwitz’s average exit velocity of 88.2 mph is in just the 29th percentile.
Unsurprisingly, Horwitz’s hard-hit rate of 36.6% ranked in the bottom third of all big-league hitters. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP), though, was a clean .300, an indicator that Horwitz perhaps isn’t extraordinarily lucky. After all, the league-wide BABIP in MLB a year ago was .291.
While Horwitz shouldn’t be placed on high alert for serious regression, it’s clear that he doesn’t impact the baseball particularly hard. Had he played all 97 of his games at PNC Park last season, Horwitz would have hit 10 home runs instead of 12. But were he to have suited up for the Reds at notoriously small Great American Ball Park, that figure would balloon to 17 four-baggers.
Odds are, unless Horwitz contends for National League batting titles, he won’t be qualifying for many All-Star Games. But he was indeed a bona fide top farmhand in Toronto, as MLB Pipeline rated Horwitz No. 9 out of the top-10 first base prospects in the game back in January.
The Pirates are looking for competency at first base and on the surface seem to have acquired as much in Horwitz. Considering manager Derek Shelton’s club was 24th in the league in runs scored a year ago, the Pirates could use more of that to supplement a lineup that figures to once again be headlined by Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds.
“Overall, a good pickup that kind of helps us lengthen our lineup,” Shelton said of Horwitz on Wednesday. “We came into the offseason saying that we needed to improve our offense, and I think we have.”
