Well, that wasn’t supposed to happen.
Penn State fans watched, I’m sure many in amazement, as Ohio State choked as a 19.5-point favorite against Michigan, opening the door for a Nittany Lions’ trip to Indianapolis and the Big 10 championship game.
All they had to do was take care of business against Maryland, which they did with ease, winning 44-7 despite giving up a touchdown in the first minute of the game.
For all the disappointment after yet another loss to the Buckeyes earlier this season, it’s a Penn State team that now finds itself playing No. 1 Oregon on Saturday in Indianapolis (8 p.m./CBS). With a win, the Nittany Lions could potentially be the No. 1 overall seed, securing a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
It’s a thought that seemed almost unfathomable after the loss to Ohio State, and the temperature amongst the fan base has been lukewarm ever since. Perhaps it’s just a case of we’ve seen this before, we know what this team is. Or maybe it’s the fact that most fans just resigned themselves that this team, like so many others before them, isn’t elite.
I wouldn’t call it downright negativity, but it’s not like there’s been a lot of positive buzz, either. It’s been more ho-hum, like this is what we’re supposed to do, beat the other teams in the Big 10 on our schedule, well, because that’s what Penn State has done for the better part of a decade under James Franklin.
You know what, though? It’s not just ho-hum this year, and it isn’t for so many reasons, with the easiest to point out being that other teams haven’t taken care of business. Notre Dame, Tennessee, Ohio State and Alabama all have losses to unranked teams, while Georgia got blown out by Ole Miss. The transfer portal and the instability it creates, even among top programs, has more than a little to do with that.
Penn State’s had some close calls — namely USC and Minnesota in conference play, but those wins count just the same as a 42-point drubbing. Really good teams, teams that are buttoned up, win those games. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, whatever criticism levied against James Franklin for his poor record in big games, the Nittany Lions, by and large, handle their business against the teams they are supposed to.
Now, that doesn’t mean that there still aren’t question marks around the program, and they will rear their head once again if the Nittany Lions lose to Oregon.
But looking at things logically, I think this is a win-win for Penn State. A victory secures a week off and no worse than the No. 2 overall seed. A loss (unless it’s a blowout), and it’s still a team that is more than likely to host a first-round playoff game and, quite honestly, have an easier path than the No. 1 or 2 seeds would, based on current projections.
This isn’t the same as the last time Penn State was in the conference championship game, when they beat Wisconsin. That team needed a win and some help to get in the then 4-team playoff after losing to Pitt and getting blown out by Michigan early in the season. They got the win, but they didn’t get the help they needed.
This team is in a much different position. For the first time in a long time, this should be a team that goes into a big game loose and relaxed. They know they are in the playoff regardless of what happens, and in theory, they should play with that attitude.
Let it rip.