HARRISBURG (TNS) — Democrats think they can get closer to flipping the Pennsylvania Senate this year — with potential to tie the chamber for the first time in three decades — while Republicans are confident they’ll keep a strong majority in the Nov. 5 election.
While control of the state House is up for grabs again this year — House Democrats hold only a one-seat majority — the state Senate remains an uphill battle for Democrats. Pennsylvania’s 2022 redistricted maps set up Republicans to hold control of the state Senate, and Democrats would likely need a “blue wave” in the swing state to tie the chamber. But with Democrats set to flip at least one Republican-held Senate seat, they believe they’re inching closer to tying or flipping the chamber for the first time in 30 years.
Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, made several state Senate endorsements last week”because they will help me deliver on the priorities that Pennsylvanians care about,” he said in a statement, as the party hopes to achieve a “trifecta” of Democratic control of the state House, Senate, and governor’s mansion.
Meanwhile, Republicans are bullish that they’ll retain their Senate majority — or even pick up seats, with their sights set on flipping Northeast Philly and Pittsburgh suburban districts. Only half of the 50-member state Senate is up for election to four-year terms this year, while the rest is up for reelection in 2026.
“The Republican Senate will hold the majority and do so comfortably,” said Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward (R., Westmoreland) in a statement. “We have great candidates throughout this election cycle and they will be bringing home a Republican majority in the state Senate for the next decade.”
Here’s a look at five of the competitive races across Pennsylvania that will decide who controls the state Senate.
A Northeast Philly controversyThe 5th Senatorial District in Northeast Philadelphia has a Democratic majority of voters. But Northeast Philly voters tend to have a more conservative bend — they live in the only part of the city represented by a Republican on City Council — in comparison to the rest of reliably blue Philadelphia.
Sen. Jimmy Dillon (D., Philadelphia), who was elected in 2022 as a political newcomer to fill the remainder of former Sen. John Sabatina Jr.’s term, is running to continue representing the district. Dillon, 45, a former University of Notre Dame point guard, still runs the Hoops 24-7 Basketball Academy he started across 27 gyms in the Philly region, while also working as the area’s state senator.
His challenger is Republican Joe Picozzi, 29, who previously worked on Capitol Hill for former House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
The district’s conservative tilt gives Republicans hope they can flip the seat, and they’re spending big to do it. Television ads attacking Dillon have been running for weeks.
The Senate Republican Campaign Committee last month publicized 10-year-old posts by Dillon’s business account that used racial slurs and homophobic remarks, and promoted anti-Asian stereotypes. Dillon, who is white, denied posting the tweets and claimed other people had access to the page. (Dillon had posted from the business page in the first person during the time period of the offensive posts.)
Sen. Vincent Hughes (D., Philadelphia), who chairs the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, said the objectionable tweets don’t represent the leader he knows, that others had access to the accounts, and noted that Dillon mentored many young people at his basketball academy.
“The people know Jimmy Dillon and know what he’s worked on, know that his values are much greater than those that were represented in those tweets,” Hughes said.
But Picozzi is a driven and energetic candidate who is working hard to flip the seat, said Sen. Dave Argall (R., Schuylkill), who chairs the SRCC.
“When you ask me who were some of your best candidates, Joe Picozzi comes to mind very quickly,” Argall said.
Democrats, however, believe they will be able to elect Dillon for a four-year term, Hughes said.
“We think that Jimmy Dillon will have the resources necessary to communicate who he is as a person and what he’s been able to get done in his short time in the state Senate,” Hughes added. “He’ll break through up there, and he’s going to be all right.”
From an ‘open’ to historic seatIn an open race to represent Harrisburg, State Rep. Patty Kim (D., Dauphin) is poised to become the first Asian American woman elected to the state Senate.
Kim, who is Korean American, announced early in 2023 she would challenge sitting State Sen. John DiSanto (R., Dauphin) to represent the 15th Senatorial District. But the district shifted blue under the redistricted maps, and a critical post by DiSanto about pop star Olivia Rodrigo put him in hot water.
DiSanto, the eight-year incumbent, decided not to run for reelection, and the seat now looks likely to flip blue and go to Kim. Kim is running against Republican Nick DiFrancesco, a former county commissioner.
Hughes said he was not playing favorites, but noted the potentially history-making race in the 15th District as one of the most exciting this cycle.
The Pittsburgh area’s precarious seatsThere are two competitive state Senate seats around Pittsburgh in Allegheny County and parts of Westmoreland County. The first is an open seat covering parts of the Pittsburgh suburbs and Westmoreland County, which was narrowly won by the incumbent Democrat by 69 votes in 2020.
Rep. Nick Pisciottano (D., Allegheny) is hoping to replace Sen. Jim Brewster, the incumbent Democrat who is not running for reelection, to represent the 45th Senatorial District, while Republican small-business owner Jen Dintini thinks she can flip the seat. More than $3 million has already been spent on TV and streaming ads, with Republican groups outspending Dems 3-1.
The other competitive race in the area is the 37th Senatorial District between incumbent Sen. Devlin Robinson (R., Allegheny) — who flipped the seat in 2020 from Democrat Pam Iovino — and his Democratic challenger, public school teacher Nicole Ruscitto. Ruscitto has focused her campaign on promising to protect abortion access in the state, as well as other top Democratic priorities such as public education funding.
“We’re never matching Republicans dollar for dollar, it has always been a problem historically. But we know we beat them issue for issue,” Hughes said.
“This cycle it’s different: We’re certainly beating them on the issues, and we’re extremely competitive financially,” he added, noting that Democrats’ new energy under Vice President Kamala Harris’ candidacy for president.
But Republicans think their record on jobs, the economy, and crime will convince voters to reelect a Republican majority, Argall said.
“We’ve proven that on many of those issues, [voters] trust us more than the other side,” Argall added, noting Republicans’ voter registration increases across the state.
Erie’s legal battlegroundThere is no messier or more complicated race on the Pennsylvania ballot than the one to represent parts of Erie in the state Senate, where one of the candidates has sued the other.
Sen. Dan Laughlin (R., Erie) has represented the politically mixed district since 2016, a bellwether county in presidential elections. He’s a moderate Republican who has advocated for the legalization of recreational marijuana, and has led efforts to allow Sunday hunting in Pennsylvania.
But Laughlin is currently in a messy defamation case in which he sued a local news outlet, the Erie Reader, over an opinion article it published, written by Laughlin’s now-opponent Jim Wertz.
Wertz, who is named as a defendant in the suit, is the Erie County Democratic Party’s chair. In the opinion piece, Wertz criticized Laughlin for signing a December 2020 brief to the U.S. Supreme Court about the presidential election arguing that the state Supreme Court and secretary of state overstepped the legislature’s duties, and alleged in the newspaper that Laughlin was trying to overturn Pennsylvania’s election results. Laughlin has denied that claim and sued the news outlet and Wertz in 2022.
Now, the two are on the ballot against one another.
In a fraught and public legal battle, subpoenas for records in the lawsuit gave unusual access to legal discovery for both of the men’s lives, including a now-dropped claim by Laughlin that the suit negatively hurt his sex life with his wife, the Erie Times-News reported.
The lawsuit has also given the public a view of how 2020 election conspiracies permeated throughout the state Capitol. Emails obtained as part of legal discovery revealed additional details about former President Donald Trump’s pressure campaign in Pennsylvania and provided a behind-the-scenes glimpse into how it was received in Harrisburg.
The case between the newspaper, the senator, and his Democratic opponent was sent to mediation last month, Erie Times-News reported.
