HARRISBURG — The Center for Rural Pennsylvania, a bipartisan legislative agency resource for rural policy within the General Assembly, this week released its newest population projections for the commonwealth.
During a press conference held Wednesday at the state Capitol, center board of directors and staff, along with staff of the Pennsylvania State Data Center, presented Pennsylvania population projections through 2050.
The data examined age and gender cohorts for each county through the year of 2050. Changes in Pennsylvania’s population will affect a range of policy issues, including workforce availability, housing, health care, education, transportation and agriculture.
Center for Rural Pennsylvania Board of Directors Chairman, Sen. Gene Yaw, said, “These projections reveal significant population and demographic changes forthcoming in Pennsylvania, and it is more important now than ever, to start the discussion on long-term solutions to not only preserve and sustain rural areas in the commonwealth, but also help them to thrive.”
“The population projections will help inform medium- and long-term planning at the county, regional and state levels,” said Center for Rural Pennsylvania Board of Directors Vice Chairman, Rep. Eddie Day Pashinski.
Rick Esch, president of the University of Pittsburgh’s Bradford and Titusville campuses, and Susan Snelick of Northern Pennsylvania Regional College serve on the center’s board of directors.
“The center’s population projections present already familiar challenges for our rural areas,” said Center for Rural Pennsylvania Executive Director Dr. Kyle Kopko. “With the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation, coupled with fewer young people in our rural communities, these projections suggest significant economic and workforce pressures are on the horizon.”
A press release from the center reported the projections indicate that by 2050, the population within rural counties is expected to shrink by 5.8%. Additionally, the total growth rate for all of Pennsylvania during the next 30 years will be less than what it was between 2010 and 2020. Between 2010 and 2020, the commonwealth’s population grew at a rate of 2.4%. Between 2020 and 2050, projections suggest an overall growth rate of just 1.6%. Furthermore, the overall population of the commonwealth is expected to slightly decline between 2040 and 2050 by -0.2%.
Kopko said during the presentation that such a decline would be “a historic first for Pennsylvania in the modern era.”
He continued, “The data accounts for births, deaths and migration patterns, but does not account for economic shocks or policy interventions.”
The population projections presented, center representatives said, are consistent with the findings of similar estimates for Ohio and West Virginia, and likely true of other comparable regions across the nation. Smaller sizes, lower density and a relatively older demographic complicates population pressures in rural communities, center officials explained.
“Now is an opportune time for planners and policymakers to consider these projections and adapt to the changes that are likely to develop across the commonwealth,” Kopko continued. “Communities should carefully consider the implications of these projections.”
Pashinski continued, “Given the wide range of policies that are implicated by population change, long-term planning that incorporates the expertise of a variety of stakeholders — including state and local officials, nonprofit groups, business and industry leaders, among others — will ensure that the commonwealth is prepared for these changes, and that our rural communities remain resilient in the coming decades.”
The Center for Rural Pennsylvania was created by Act 16, the Rural Pennsylvania Revitalization Act, of 1987. The center works with the legislature, educators, state and federal executive branch agencies and national, statewide, regional and local organizations to maximize resources and strategies to better serve the nearly 3.4 million rural Pennsylvania residents.
According to its website, the center “promotes and sustains the vitality of Pennsylvania’s rural and small communities by: sponsoring research projects to identify policy options for legislative and executive branch consideration and action; collecting data on trends and conditions to understand the diversity of rural Pennsylvania; publishing information and research results to inform and educate audiences about the diverse people and communities of rural Pennsylvania; and participating in local, state and national forums on rural issues to present and learn from best practices.”
The report is available for download on the center’s website, www.rural.pa.gov. Kopko said, “The data file is also available for policymakers, community leaders and members of public to access for planning purposes.”
To learn more about the center’s population projections and research, visit the center’s website for its most recent publication, “Pennsylvania Population Projections 2050: A First Look.”
