Not every team is going to appreciate where we have them picked.

That’s what happens when it’s still August and optimism is at its collective highest for every program in the area, and yet we still have to choose a handful of those to finish below .500.

But here’s what makes us feel pretty good about that annual late-August exercise: We’ve been pretty accurate over the years. And last season, unquestionably, was the most on-target we’ve been in terms of our record predictions for local high school football teams since I took the reins on this age-old tradition back in 2011.

Our TH sports staff nailed the records for nine squads — our high over the last 12 years — and came within one game of seven others, meaning we were within a single contest either way of 16 of 22 teams. Included in that was our “hot seat” selection (a team on whom we put the pressure of going undefeated), Randolph, which rattled off 11-straight victories before falling to Tioga in the New York State Class D Final Four.

And of the six we skewed, we overestimated the marks for four of those teams. That means we really only owe apologies to two programs: Otto-Eldred, which went 6-4 after we’d pegged it to go 4-6, and Elk County Catholic, which, with a roster of just 18 players, forged an admirable 8-2 record in Tony Gerg’s last season after we’d allowed only for a 5-5 campaign in the preseason.

Yes, overall we did alright. We were spot-on with nine teams when the average had hovered around five (and was as low as two in 2015). We also gave more credence to the idea that if we put you on the hot seat (or even close to it), you’re probably poised to be pretty good, as we’ve hit on that choice in five of eight tries since 2011 while none of the other three had more than two losses (the hot seat sat empty in 2016, 2018-19 and ‘20, with no Football Edition due to the pandemic).

And if ever there was a year to make sure we did well, it was last summer, when we moved the annual predictions piece from the Edition to the regular pages so that it could stand as a featured story.

This year, that piece is back out front, where it will likely live permanently. And we’ve done our best to be as accurate as we were last year. But before we get into our predictions for this fall, here’s a quick look at how we did in ‘22:

Team Predicted ActualAllegany-Limestone 3-5 4-4

Bolivar-Richburg 6-2 5-3

Bradford 3-7 0-10

Cameron County 4-6 4-6

Cattaraugus-LV 1-7 0-8

Cuba-Rushford 1-6 1-6

Coudersport 6-3 6-3

Elk County Catholic 5-5 8-2

Franklinville/Ellicottville 6-2 6-2

Kane 3-7 3-7

Olean 6-2 4-4

Otto-Eldred 4-6 6-4

Pioneer 5-3 6-2

Port Allegany 8-2 9-1

Portville 6-2 6-2

Randolph 8-0 8-0

Ridgway 4-6 2-8

Salamanca 5-3 6-2

Sheffield 0-8 0-8

Smethport 2-7 1-8

St. Marys 6-3 6-3

Wellsville 3-5 1-8

Last year, admittedly, it was a little bit easier. There were a number of programs that had strong seasons in 2021 and brought back the bulk of those rosters, including Randolph, Port Allegany and Salamanca. Ergo, it didn’t take a genius to know that these teams were going to be really good again in ‘22.

And that, for the most part, is the case again this fall. On the New York side, though they all suffered a couple of key graduation losses, the likes of Pioneer, Portville, Salamanca, Franklinville/Ellicottville and Portville/Cuba-Rushford all returned a ton of talent. As such, all five could, and maybe should, be in the mix for a league title or a home playoff game this season. The same could be said of Port Allegany, which lost three key skill players but returned the entirety of one of the best lines in the Big 30, and Coudersport, which returned its quarterback and a 1,000-yard rusher, among many others, in Pennsylvania. So, we’d like to believe we have at least a general idea about how things will play out.

As for the hot seat, for the fifth time since 2011, it will go empty.

Oh, there are a couple of teams that could well have earned that designation in 2023, including Pioneer and Coudersport. And it’s not because we wanted to spare them of the pressure that we declined to choose either. Both figure to be tremendous, it’s just there could be a real obstacle or two that prevents both from perfection.

Pioneer returns a wealth of talent from a team that went 8-3 and reached the Section 6 Class B championship game last fall, including three Big 30 all-stars and quarterback Gavin Schwab. But five Class A teams from last year have dropped into the Panthers’ B-1 league this season, and given the uncertainty of what that might entail, assuming an unbeaten campaign against that level of competition might be unfair.

Coudersport, meanwhile, will play a lighter schedule, featuring league games against District 9 Region 3 opponents and non-leaguers versus Bradford and Cowanesque Valley, which should give it the opportunity to load up on wins. And though it already handled Region 2 foe Keystone, 36-0, in Week 0, a game against Region 2 favorite Brockway still looms.

Then, too, after consecutive unbeaten regular seasons, Randolph figures to remain as one of the top small-school teams in the area. But given some of its graduation losses from last year’s state final four team, the Cardinals have probably earned a little leeway in ‘23

With that in mind, we have the Panthers going 7-1, the Falcons finishing 9-1 and Randolph and Port Allegany at 6-2 and 8-2, respectively, to highlight Big 30 finishes in 2023. And here’s how we see the coming campaign playing out as a whole:

DISTRICT 9 REGION 1 W L

DISTRICT 9 REGION 2 W L

DISTRICT 9 REGION 3 W L

SECTION 6 CLASS B1 W L

SECTION 6 CLASS B3 W L

SECTION 6 CLASS C SOUTH W L

Portville/Cuba-Rush. (5-3) 4

Falconer/Cass. Valley/MG 3

SECTION 6 CLASS D W LFranklinville/E-ville (6-2) 4 1

Clymer/Sherman/Panama 4 1

8 MAN W L