The good news for Penn State? It is ranked No. 7 in the Associated Press preseason poll, which was released Monday afternoon. It will start the season in the Top 10 for the fourth time in seven years.
The bad news for Penn State? Michigan is ranked No. 2, Ohio State No. 3. Penn State plays both teams again this season. All three are in the Big Ten’s East division.
The worst news for Penn State? It is 3-6 against Michigan and 1-8 against Ohio State under James Franklin. It will be hard for Penn State to win the division and make the College Football Playoff without beating at least one of those teams. Remember, only four teams will make it again this season before the playoff field expands to 12 in 2024.
Jack Ham is not deterred.
“Watch out for Penn State!” he told me the other day.
Ham, a Penn State alum of some renown and the smartest football man I know, is back for his 24th season as Penn State’s radio color broadcaster. He likes the potential of the 2023 team, which starts the season at home against West Virginia on Sept. 2.
Actually, Ham loves it.
It’s easy to understand why. This will be Franklin’s 10th team at Penn State and should be his best. It should be better even than his 2016 team, which many college football experts thought should have gone to the playoff instead of Ohio State. Penn State beat Ohio State that season on a late blocked field-goal attempt but also lost a close game at Pitt and was blown out by 39 points at Michigan.
My biggest concern for Penn State is Franklin, a terrific recruiter but a mediocre game-day coach.
Quarterback Drew Allar, a five-star recruit, waited patiently last season behind Sean Clifford, who seemed to be at Penn State for a decade. Allar isn’t just big — Ben Roethlisberger size — at 6-foot-5, 243 pounds. He has a big-time arm. He has the ability to take Penn State a long way.
Penn State has an experienced offensive line to protect Allar. Olu Fashanu, who was regarded by many as the best offensive tackle in the country last season — better even than Broderick Jones — surprised everyone by coming back for another college season. Penn State has returning backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who combined for 1,928 rushing yards and 22 rushing touchdowns last season as true freshmen. It has receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who caught an 88-yard touchdown in the Rose Bowl win against Utah last season.
Penn State has a chance to be even better defensively. Defensive end Chop Robinson could be a first-round NFL pick next April. Tony Rojas has the look of a future star at linebacker. Abdul Carter already is a star linebacker and wears the school’s prized No. 11 jersey, worn previously by Micah Parsons, NaVarro Bowman and LaVar Arrington. The secondary is loaded despite losing Joey Porter Jr. to the Steelers and Ji’Ayir Brown to the San Francisco 49ers. Kalen King is a terrific cornerback.
The closest thing I can find as a Penn State weakness is special teams.
Other than Franklin on game days, that is.
Penn State won 11 games in four of Franklin’s first nine seasons. That’s really good. It has wins in the Rose, Cotton and Fiesta Bowls under him. That’s also good.
But Penn State also has lost at least two games in each of Franklin’s seasons. Before beating No. 7 Utah in the Rose Bowl, Penn State had been 2-15 against top-10 teams under Franklin with 11 consecutive losses. That’s not so good.
Michigan put a brutal, physical beating on Penn State last season. It held Singleton and Allen to a combined 35 rushing yards on 12 carries. It did even more damage to the Penn State defense, putting up 563 yards of offense, including 418 rushing yards, the third-most allowed by a Penn State team since they started keeping statistics in 1947.
At least the Michigan game is in Happy Valley on Nov. 11.
Penn State played Ohio State much tougher at home last season. It led 21-16 with 9:26 left before its defense wilted after Clifford’s third and fourth turnovers of the game. The final score, 44-31, looked worse than the game was.
This season’s Ohio State game will be in Columbus on Oct. 21.
Penn State might catch a break in that game because Ohio State is breaking in a new quarterback after C.J. Stroud was the No. 2 overall pick by the Houston Texans in the 2023 NFL draft.
Considering Franklin’s track record against Top 10 teams, Penn State is going to need all the breaks it can get to finish the regular season 12-0 or even 11-1.
