I have written it many times. I have said it many times. I have heard other people say it many times.

“Never bet against Sid.”

That always made sense to me. Sidney Crosby is one of the five greatest players in NHL history. He has won three Stanley Cups and two Olympic gold medals. His coach on the Canadian Olympic team, Mike Babcock, once said of him, “He is addicted to winning.”

I get that.

But I also know that if I had bet against Crosby and the Penguins the past five seasons, I would have made a lot of money. They missed the postseason last season for the first time in 17 years. They failed to win a playoff series in each of the four seasons before that.

Is Crosby’s presence for a 19th year enough to make me look at the Penguins as serious Stanley Cup contenders this season?

No.

Even after the shocking, pleasing trade for three-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson?

No.

I have my reasons, even though I think the Penguins are at least a marginally better team than last season.

AGEI think back to something Mike Sullivan said before last season: “We’re getting a bit older, but were not old.”

Actually, the Penguins are old. They finished last season as the oldest team in the NHL. At the moment, they have 13 players on the roster who are least 30, including Jeff Carter, 38. Crosby turned 36 on Monday. Evgeni Malkin turned 37 on July 31. Kris Letang is 36. Karlsson is 33. Lars Eller is 34.

Crosby, Malkin and Letang — when he was able to play last season — still were productive. But, eventually, even the best run out of time.

Could this be the season we start to see that happen with the Penguins stars?

INJURIESThe season won’t begin until October and it’s already been a rough start for the Penguins. The news that Jake Guentzel had ankle surgery and perhaps will miss the first month is troubling. Guentzel, twice a 40-goal man, led the team in goals in three of the past four season, including last season when he had 36.

It’s tempting to try to minimize Guentzel’s loss if it’s only for five or 10 games. But points figure to be at a premium again in the ultra-competitive Metropolitan Division. The Penguins know all about that after finishing fifth in the division last season and missing the playoffs by two points.

The good news is Letang, who played in just 64 games last season after having his second stroke and losing his father, should play in a lot more this season. The bad news is it’s almost impossible to think there’s any chance Crosby, Malkin and Karlsson will play in all 82 games, as they did last season. Karlsson has missed a combined 97 games in the past five seasons because of injuries.

DEFENSESullivan has said many times that it’s hard for a team to score its way to a Cup. These Penguins appear ready to try to prove him wrong after adding Karlsson, who had 25 goals and 76 assists last season to become the NHL’s first 100-point defenseman in more than two decades, to go with the offensively gifted Letang. The two figure to play a combined 48-50 minutes a game. Both are adept at moving the puck. Both are elite at getting it out of their zone. That’s important because the other team can’t score when the Penguins have the puck. But it’s not hard to imagine plenty of odd-man rushes coming the Penguins’ way in every game. Sullivan’s sanity will be tested.

So will Tristan Jarry’s.

GOALTENDINGThe Penguins’ season will come down to Jarry more than any player. Maybe you think that’s a good thing. I don’t.

I know Jarry is talented and is a two-time All-Star. But I also know the Penguins haven’t been able to count on him because of injuries. And it’s not as if he has any kind of track record as a postseason goalie. He has none.

It wasn’t comforting to hear Jarry go public after last season and use his injuries as an excuse for his inconsistent-to-poor play. It also didn’t generate any confidence in him when he talked about how difficult it was for him all season not knowing where he would be playing this season.

Really?

Karlsson didn’t know where he would be playing this season and still managed to excel at his job. Most mentally tough players find a way.

Bottom line?

I’m not at all sure the Penguins will make the playoffs, let alone be legitimate Cup contenders.