It’s tough to think about a drought when it’s raining. However, drought expert Sylvia Reeves explained, “There is a lot more to drought than the surface.”
Reeves is a regional drought information coordinator with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ National Integrated Drought Information System. That’s a lot to fit on a business card, but it means that she knows what she’s talking about when she says this part of the state is experiencing moderate drought.
She referred a reporter to the Current Drought Reduction page for the NOAA, which provides data on how much precipitation would be necessary to bring a region out of drought and into the “normal” stage within a month. As of Wednesday, for this region, 7.51 inches of rain would be necessary.
The probability of getting that precipitation and ending the drought conditions is just 3.08%. The amount required to make it better would be 3.94 inches — there’s a 56.15% chance of that happening, the data showed.
“You’re, over the last couple of weeks, seeing what the drought monitor sees as increasing dryness going into moderate drought,” Reeves said. She’s more Western New York-focused with her position, but said, “What we’re seeing in our region, from Albany to Buffalo and into western Pennsylvania, those U.S. (Geological Survey) stream flows are abysmal right now. They are not flowing very well.
“We’re starting to get folks calling in with dry-well reports,” she said. “Wells are running dry or very low and qualities of well water are down. Ponds that farmers might use for livestock are drying up.”
Early drought is likely to become more of a problem each year, Reeves said. Milder winters mean less precipitation to soak into the ground and replenish aquifers.
“People say the Northeast will never see drought,” Reeves said, adding that just isn’t accurate. “Climate in the Northeast is trending wetter, but it is trending for evapotranspiration too.”
Evapotranspiration is the process by which water moves from the earth’s surface into the atmosphere — evaporation and transpiration, which is how plants release moisture through small pores on the leaves.
Because temperatures have been higher, water is evaporating more quickly instead of soaking in.
Reeves mentioned the rainfall of the past few days. “The system that is going through is going to be helpful for greening up some lawns for a couple days. By the weekend, if the temperature goes up, we’re going to get that evapotranspiration and (the atmosphere) will suck it up.”
The water won’t get down through the layers of the soil to sustain stream flows or to fill groundwater reserves.
“Each time this happens, if we don’t get the replenishment of those aquifers, you’re taking a hit,” she said. The variability of the climate in the Northeast is causing the problem.
“We’re finding that we cannot operate on history,” she added, explaining that “what we’ve seen in the past isn’t necessarily what we’re going to see.”
The atmosphere is changing, Reeves said.
There are multiple web pages available with data about rainfall and drought, including drought.gov
The moderate drought so far this year is worrisome, she said. “That has impacts on tourism, recreation, tribal sovereignty. Water utilities will be asking people a little earlier to conserve water.”
