The Jets and the words “Super Bowl” are actually being used in the same sentence heading into 2023, and not just because people are talking about the franchise’s lone championship 55 years ago.
General manager Joe Douglas and coach Robert Saleh have steadily improved the team over the past two years, as we saw when the Jets contended for a playoff spot last year. Now, after adding Aaron Rodgers this offseason, oddsmakers and pundits are labeling them as true contenders.
But is it deserved? And is adding Rodgers, who turns 40 in December, enough to actually keep pace in a seemingly escalating AFC arms race? (Literally, just look at the list of quarterbacks in the conference.) Will it even be enough to challenge Josh Allen and the Bills in the AFC East?
Time will tell, but here’s a look at how the external perspective has changed for the Jets. And what the expectations really should be.
What Vegas is saying
The sportsbooks certainly put the Jets among the contenders to win a Super Bowl, with a consensus of the major sports books landing them with the seventh-best overall odds anywhere between +1200 and +1800, behind the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Bills, Bengals and Cowboys.
Buffalo has the fourth-best odds with all the major books placing them at +900. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have the 10th best odds, with the books placing them anywhere from +2000 to +3000.
The Patriots are not viewed as realistic Super Bowl contenders according to the sports books, with their odds in the bottom third of the NFL at anywhere from +4500 to +7500.
The same story plays out in the AFC East odds: the Bills are the favorites at anywhere from +115 to +135, followed by the Jets (+200 to +285), Dolphins (+280 to +320) with the Patriots once again heavy underdogs (+750 to +1000).
What the pundits are saying
The Jets are also getting a lot of love in the ever-evolving world of NFL power rankings, for the first time in a long time. But it’s not the same type of consensus confidence that we’re seeing in the betting odds.
ESPN has them ranked No. 12 overall, behind the Dolphins (No. 6) and Bills (No. 5) and ahead of the Patriots (No. 16).
CBS has the Jets at No. 8, behind the Bills (No. 3), ahead of the Dolphins (No. 9) and the Patriots (No. 27).
Sports Illustrated has the Jets at No. 6, behind the Bills (No. 4), and ahead of the Dolphins (No. 13) and the Patriots (No. 16).
And NFL.com has the Jets at No. 9, behind the Bills (No. 4) and ahead of the Dolphins (No. 10) and Patriots (No. 17).
Bottom line, most of the national prognosticators seem to view the race between the Jets and Dolphins as a tossup.
What we’re saying
The Jets are the talk of the NFL this offseason because of their trade for Rodgers. And a lot of fan bases, especially the other ones in the AFC East, are talking about them being overrated. But it’s overly simplistic to say the Jets are finally contenders because they landed Rodgers.
Let’s not forget that just a year ago, the Jets weren’t sniffing the top 20 in Super Bowl odds and none of the above media outlets had them ranked higher than 25 heading into the season. Then they proved that they could play with anyone because of their young core, led by Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson.
Would the Jets be Super Bowl contenders without Rodgers? Probably not. But they’d still be viewed as one of the better teams in the league. And labeling them as contenders with Rodgers makes sense, because he still has the potential to elevate them to a new level even at age 39 — especially considering how dangerous the Jets looked at times last year even with poor quarterback play.
As for where they stand in the AFC East: yes, Buffalo is clearly the team to beat. But if you look at the way the Jets played them last year (a home win and a near win in Buffalo, with the Jets’ chances hurt by Mike White’s rib injury), the race for the division lead is probably little tighter than the pundits. The Jets had the right answers for Allen last year. And that makes them a real threat to knock off Buffalo this year, because Rodgers likely won’t let the Bills win while scoring only 20 points.
However, they still have to deal with the other two teams in the division. And the positive power rankings and betting odds won’t unload the baggage the Jets must deal with if they want to reach their potential.
The Jets haven’t won a road game in Miami since 2015, with most of those losses coming in maddening, backbreaking fashion. And overall, the Dolphins probably have more talent than the Jets (even with the uncertainty about Tua Tagovailoa’s health and availability). The Jets are betting that Rodgers can help them win what is sure to be a big game in Miami in December, but until he does it, the baggage remains.
Speaking of baggage, the most important matchups of the season might be against the Patriots, even if they aren’t the toughest on paper. They certainly are among the most compelling, just because the Jets haven’t beaten them in so long: they’ve lost a franchise-record 14 straight to New England since their last win in 2015.
Week 3 against the Patriots is likely to be a defining moment for the Jets, even if they start strong or terribly against Buffalo and Dallas. If they beat the Patriots, it’ll be a feel-good moment and a sign that they’ve finally turned the corner — especially after outplaying Belichick last year and losing twice.
}If they lose, it’ll create doubt in the mind of the team and the fan base that could linger for the rest of the season — baggage has a way of doing that, as we saw last year.
So, yes, the hype about the Jets is real. And the potential for this team to do great things in 2023 is, too. But the idea that this is going to be some cakewalk into contention is not.
