It might seem odd, but for a team that’s had so much recent success, tonight starts one of the most critical drafts in Bills’ franchise history.
This team, which has made the playoffs five of the past six seasons, faces a major test when the National Football League’s 88th annual draft commences tonight in Kansas City with the first round.
Because it’s been winning, Buffalo finds itself up against the salary cap and with only six draft picks in the seven rounds, the fewest in general manager Brandon Beane’s tenure. Worse, the Bills are selecting 27th in a particularly weak lottery where as few as 15 players might have legitimate first-round grades.
And, with the AFC being as competitive as it’s been in decades, it’s critical Buffalo gets this draft right.
“DRAFTING WELL is huge,” coach Sean McDermott admitted. “We’ve got to draft well, and we have to develop those players that we draft and they have to produce. That’s an important piece of sustaining success.”
They’re also important to the salary cap. Rights for first-round picks are retained for five seasons by the choosing team and the other rounds for four years, meaning players on their rookie contracts are somewhat of a cost-controlled bargain.
“You’re really looking at what is the cap like now, next year and the following year, for sure,” Beane admitted. “We definitely need draft picks on our roster to help us, whether it’s backup roles, special teams roles, guys to be eventual starters. Maybe they don’t walk in, if we have depth at that position, maybe we’re not counting on them this year, but maybe we’re saying, ‘Hey, we’re going to have to let a player walk; we need this guy in 2024 to start.’ That’s where we’re at.”
Trouble is, other than his first draft in 2018, Beane’s subsequent ones have been mediocre, at best.
In ‘18 he traded up twice, first to get franchise quarterback Josh Allen, then middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, in the opening round. In the third, he took popular contributor Harrison Phillips, a defensive tackle, and Taron Johnson, one of the NFL’s top nickel backs, in the fourth.
But, in the four drafts since, of the 31 players Beane has chosen, only 20 are still on the roster, a mere eight of them likely starters and that includes placekicker Tyler Bass.
WHY THE urgency in this year’s draft?
Simple, the competition in the conference has dramatically amped up.
It’s popular to talk about a team’s “Super Bowl window,” and while Bills fans think it’s still open, who’s to say it didn’t start closing after that devastating “13 Seconds” loss at Kansas City two years ago?
Let’s start with the AFC East, which Buffalo has won the past three years. The Bills are favored again, but the margin over the Dolphins and Jets is closing, according to Las Vegas bookmakers. Miami is the concern as the increasingly popular perception is that, other than quarterback, it has the division’s best roster.
And, of course, Jets fans are convinced, with the trade for Aaron Rodgers, that the next landing spot is the NFL playoffs. But anybody who watched his pathetic performance in a home loss to Detroit in last season’s finale that cost the Packers a playoff spot, couldn’t help but conclude his considerable skills are in free-fall. In his four MVP seasons, two ended in one-and-done playoff appearances and, career-long, he’s 11-10 in the postseason. Was dealing for a 39-year-old narcissistic quarterback whose unwillingness to take responsibility for his own mistakes can divide a locker room really the missing piece for a team with championship aspirations?
Of concern to the Bills, though, is the conference’s strength overall.
Seven teams besides Buffalo — the Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, Ravens, Jaguars, Chargers and Browns — see themselves as viable AFC title contenders and four others — the Jets, Patriots, Steelers and Broncos — have set, at very least, a playoff goal.
The Bills’ brutal 2023 schedule includes eight games against ’22 playoff teams, at least five on the road, plus the possibility of the London game. And, in the AFC, besides the home-and-home with the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots, Buffalo hosts the Jaguars and visits the Chiefs, Bengals and Chargers.
That’s why it’s so important for Beane to get this draft right.
(Chuck Pollock, a Times Herald senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)
