One of the great mysteries to me is the proliferation of NFL writers who feel the compulsion to predict the 53-man roster of the team they cover BEFORE the final cuts … sometimes more than once.
But the reality is, give a reasonably attentive Bills fan a Sharpie and have them cut the roster from 80 players to 53, odds are 48 of their survivors — 90% — would be accurate. The question is the final five, about which people are the most curious, yet even those who cover the teams are pretty much reduced to an educated guess.
But Buffalo’s roster reduction is now complete and here’s a look at the squad, position-by-position, along with its grade:
OFFENSE
Quarterback
It’s hard to go wrong with the odds-on favorite to win the NFL’s MVP Award, Josh Allen, as starter with Case Keenum and his nine years experience with six teams in reserve. Last year, Allen produced 42 touchdowns in the regular season, second only to Tom, and his 135 TDs (running, passing and receiving) over his first four years ranks only behind Dan Marino.
Grade: A
Running Back
There are no stars, but the trio of Devin Singletary, Zack Moss and rookie James Cook bring diverse skills to the position, though the latter still has to prove it at the NFL level. But if Singletary and Moss improve their rushing numbers and Cook becomes the pass-catcher he was drafted to be, they could upgrade what has been Buffalo’s least dependable offensive platoon. Taiwan Jones was kept for his special teams skills.
Grade: C+
Receiver
After quarterback, this is the Bills’ best offensive unit. Elite wideout Stefon Diggs led last regular season with 10 touchdowns but it was Gabriel Davis, on the opposite side, after taking the job from Emmanuel Sanders at midyear, who stood out as his five TDs in the playoffs gave him a team-high 11. That’s the same number as Dawson Knox whose nine scores were a franchise record for a tight end plus two in the postseason.
Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder are skilled wideouts who will share the slot with rookie draft choice Khalil Shakir in reserve. Jake Kumerow made the team on the kicking squads.
Grade: A-
Line
The starters — center Mitch Morris, guards Rodger Safford and Ryan Bates and tackles Dion Dawkins and either David Quessenberry or Spencer Brown — are fairly solid. And Tommy Doyle, Greg Van Roten, Bobby Hart and either Quessenberry or Brown provide decent depth.
Grade: B
DEFENSE
Line
It’s clear the team hierarchy isn’t satisfied with the pass rush. Over the last four years, the Bills have drafted a quartet of defensive linemen in the first two rounds: ends Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham and A.J. Epenesa and tackle Ed Oliver.
It wasn’t enough. Buffalo made the blockbuster free agent signing of Hall-of-Famer-to-be end Von Miller, approaching his 34th birthday, brought back tackle Jordan Phillips and end Shaq Lawson and also signed free agent tackles Daquan Jones and Tim Settle.
Grade: B-
Linebacker
Middleman Tremaine Edmunds has made back-to-back Pro Bowls, albeit to fill absences, and has solid tackle numbers. But heading into his contract year, his failure to persistently make big plays — sacks, interceptions and forced or recovered fumbles — have left his future in Buffalo uncertain. That’s not a problem for outside backer Matt Milano who excels in pass coverage, but struggles a bit against the run. Behind them are veteran Tyrel Dodson, special teams standout Tyler Matakevich and a pair of impressive rookie draft choices Terrel Bernard (third round) and Baylon Spector (seventh).
Grade: B-
Secondary
Normally the Bills’ defensive strength, this trip there’s an asterisk. Jordan Poyer, providing his elbow is healed, and Micah Hyde are one of the league’s top safety tandems with two quality backups in Jaquan Johnson and Damar Hamlin.
Cornerback, however, is a rather prominent problem.
With Pro Bowler Tre’Davious White on the physically-unable-to- perform list with a knee injury and out a minimum of four weeks, his spot goes to third-year-pro Dane Jackson, who has performed well in limited action. On the other side, starter Levi Wallace, seemingly unsigned because of his blown coverage on tight end Travis Kelce at the end of the “13 second” playoff loss at Kansas City, is now with the Steelers. His spot is being contested by two draft choices, Kaiir Elam (first round) and Christian Benford (sixth). Veteran Siran Neal can play either corner or safety and is a special teams standout.
Still, cornerback is Buffalo’s most vulnerable position, by far, at least early.
Grade: C+
SPECIAL TEAMS
Former coordinator Heath Farwell was seemingly scapegoated — fired — for his supposed decision on a deep kickoff in the final 13 seconds of that dreadful playoff loss at Kansas City last January, though some maintain it wasn’t his fault.
Matthew Smiley has been promoted to that job and he inherits one of the NFL’s best placekickers in Tyler Bass, who has made 85% of his field goals, 60% from 50 yards or more.
Long-snapper Reid Ferguson is one of the NFL’s best.
In the fallout from the waiving of punter Matt Araiza, the sixth-round draft currently involved in a civil suit over a gang-rape of a 17-year-old, Buffalo signed veteran Sam Martin, cut by the Broncos Tuesday,
Coach Sean McDermott is such a believer in special teams, toss-up positions are often decided by contributions to kicking units as happened with Jones, Kumerow, Neal and Matakevich.
Grade: B+
