The reaction was near-instant.
From the moment Tom Brady left the Patriots for the Buccaneers, via free agency, the mantra started.
The perception was, New England, without its Hall-of-Fame-bound quarterback who led it to six Super Bowl titles and eight appearances in the NFL’s Championship Game, was now vulnerable.
Suddenly, the Bills, who went 10-6 last year, made their second playoff appearance in three seasons and were a fourth-quarter meltdown at Houston from advancing to the second round last January, were anointed 2020 AFC East champs.
An NFL writer in Baltimore, just last week, envisioned the Bills “hoisting the Lombardi Trophy” next February after Super Bowl LV at Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium.
He actually made that prediction. And any number of national mediatypes have already penciled Buffalo in as division winners this coming season.
However, my inclination is to offer three words of caution … pump the brakes.
TO BE SURE, Brady is the GOAT (Greatest of All Time) for a reason … his career is unmatched in NFL history.
But the Patriots had two “greatests” who contributed to a resume that featured 17 division titles in the past 19 seasons, including the last 11 in a row. One, of course, was their quarterback, whose career record against Buffalo was 32-3 and one of those defeats had the asterisk of being a meaningless season finale when Brady played only half the game.
The other “greatest” though is still with New England … coach Bill Belichick, who also happens to be the Pats’ de facto general manager.
He’s taken plenty of criticism for letting Brady leave after 20 years, but Belichick has spent his GM career using one inalterable precept: better to get rid of a player a year too early than a year too late.
It might seem cold, but it’s hard to argue with his results.
Indeed, the Bills were victims of the opposite. The late John Butler was part of the franchise’s front office for 14 years, six as director of player personnel and eight as general manager. Popular with the media and beloved by the players, one of Butler’s greatest character strengths — loyalty — proved the Bills’ undoing.
He was so loyal to the players who had taken Buffalo to 10 playoff appearances, five conference championship games and four Super Bowls during his time with the team that he not only tended to overpay them, but also kept many of them too long.
The result was “salary cap jail,” a phenomenon also experienced by the 49ers at the end of their successful run.
IT’S NOT unfair to speculate that Belichick felt Brady, who turns 43 in August, had started a downward arc. After all, his 24 touchdown passes last season were the fewest since 2003 and his 88.0 passer rating was the second worst in the past 11 years.
Of course, Belichick bears some of that blame as Brady had one of the worst receiving corps in his two decades with the Pats.
Still, it’s worth noting that since Sean McDermott took over as Buffalo coach in 2017, while the Bills are 0-6 against New England, Brady was hardly the executioner.
In those six games, he’s thrown four touchdowns and been intercepted five times with a passer rating of 80.2 … profoundly pedestrian.
Buffalo has lost those games because it hasn’t scored against the Patriots, averaging under 11 points in those meetings with a high of 17.
And while Brady’s loss is punitive, especially from a leadership role, from 2001 until last season, he missed 19 starts … 15 in 2008 after being lost for the year to a knee injury in the opener and four due to a “Deflategate” suspension in 2016. In those 19 games, the Patriots went 13-6, behind Matt Cassel (15 starts) and Jacoby Brissett (4). Indeed, in ‘08 New England went 11-5 but missed the playoffs due to a tiebreaker, though division winner Miami had the same record.
And while it’s hard for Pats’ fans to get excited about a quarterback trio of Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer and Cody Kessler, Belichick has won with substandard QBs before.
It’s probably more concerning that he lost two key linebackers to free agency, Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy, three defensive reserves and 36-year-old kicker Stephen Gostkowski, while doing little in free agency.
Still, one could go broke betting against Belichick.
MEANWHILE, optimism over the Bills’ upcoming season is based on their defense, which ranked second in the NFL in fewest points and third in least yards surrendered.
Gone are end Shaq Lawson and tackle Jordan Phillips to free agency and retired linebacker Lorenzo Alexander. But Buffalo’s front office hopes that end Mario Addison, tackles Vernon Butler and Quinton Jefferson and linebacker A.J. Klein will fill those roles.
In any case, this unit remains among the league’s elite.
The offense, however, has its share of questions.
Start with quarterback Josh Allen, who must show dramatic improvement in throwing the long ball and decision-making. The trade for No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs makes for a solid Top 3 with John Brown and Cole Beasley, but only if Allen can maximize their skills.
Elusive running back Devin Singletary showed star potential as a rookie, averaging over five yards per carry, but at 5-foot-7, 203 pounds his durability could be a question.
The offensive line is barely average, at best, and nominal tight end starter Dawson Knox showed promise as a rookie, but caught only 28 balls and dropped way too many.
In short, if the Bills are to win the division, they must step up offensively after ranking 23rd in the NFL in points scored last season.
And there’s one other factor.
Last season, Buffalo had a generationally weak schedule.
This year will be the opposite. New England has the NFL’s toughest slate, its foes’ winning percentage at .537. The Bills are tied for fifth most difficult at .525.
What’s more problematic is that Buffalo’s slate has four cross-country road games, two in the Pacific time zone (San Francisco and Las Vegas) and two in Mountain time (Arizona and Denver). There’s also a trip to Tennessee, which beat the Patriots in last year’s playoffs, and of course the annual visit to Foxboro.
Finally, there are home games with NFL champion Kansas City, plus the Rams, Seahawks, Steelers and Pats.
The Bills are a team that should be improved, but could still finish 8-8. That’s why talk about an AFC East title is probably best soft-pedaled for now.
(Chuck Pollock, a Bradford Publishing senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)
