All the experts have their opinions on the keys to victory when the Bills and Texans meet in this afternoon’s AFC wild-card playoff game.
The two 10-6 teams square off at NRG Stadium (4:35, WKBW-TV, ESPN-TV, 95.7 FM, 100.1 FM, 550 AM) for the right to advance to the divisional round.
Houston, a 2½ -point favorite, is hosting the game because the Texans won the South Division while Buffalo earned the conference’s No. 1 wild card spot after finishing second in the East to New England (12-4), which lost its first-round bye in a home defeat by Miami in the season finale.
What do the Bills have to do to win today?
Score at least 20 points.
This season, Buffalo has been led by its defense, which ranks second in the NFL in fewest points surrendered (16 per game) and third in least yards given up (298 per). The offense, meanwhile, is averaging just under 20 points, 23rd in the league.
Why is that number significant?
The Bills have scored 20-or-more points seven times this season and they’re 7-0 in those games.
Houston, meanwhile, has been a bit of an enigma, having given up more points (385) than it’s scored (378) while eight of its 10 victories have been by a touchdown or less, five by three points or fewer. The Texans have also made the same number of turnovers as they’ve forced.
And there’s one other reason for Buffalo to be optimistic.
These two teams met last season at NRG and while the Texans prevailed 20-13, Bills’ rookie QB Josh Allen was hurt in the third quarter and it was backup Nathan Peterman who threw a “pick-six” that provided Houston with the winning points.
In other words, Buffalo’s defense gave up only 10 points to an offense headed by elite quarterback Deshaun Watson, throwing to wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller and and a ground game featuring running back Lamar Miller.
The Texans also had All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt, who returns today after a stretch on injured reserve. The three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year suffered a torn pectoral muscle but was reactivated on Christmas Eve and reportedly will get a regular dose of snaps against Buffalo.
On offense, Watson (33 TDs, 26 passing 7 rushing), Hopkins (104 catches, 7 TDs) and Fuller are back and joined by wideout Kenny Stills while Carlos Hyde (6 rushing TDs) replaces the retired Miller.
Four Bills will be questionable today – cornerback Levi Wallace (ankle), defensive end Shaq Lawson (hamstring), wide receiver/kick returner Andre Roberts (foot) and offensive tackle Ty Nsekhe (ankle) – and are likely game-time decisions.
The only pure starter in that group is Wallace and his absence looms as critical given the Texans’ receiving corps.
Buffalo coach Sean McDermott was asked about Houston’s talent and he noted,
“You look at the playmakers, J.J. being one of them, just one of many on the defensive side and the offensive side, special teams, they’ve got quite a few guys that can make plays.
“(J.J.’s) a game changer, as is Deshaun and Whitney (Mercilus, linebacker) the same way, the list goes on.”
For Allen, he sees himself as a different quarterback than a year ago.
“It’s a new game, a different situation, all the marbles on the table,” he said, pointing out how he’s changed. “Seeing things, seeing defenses, trusting the guys around me, not trying to make the big play all the time. This is a game we have to be smart, every possession in the playoffs is extremely critical and we’ve got to go in understanding that. Points are at a premium in the playoffs.”
When reminded that Buffalo hasn’t scored a first-quarter touchdown in eight games, Allen admitted, “There’s a big statistic on the team that scores first has a larger percentage chance to win the game. We understand that … everyone in the league understands that. We’ve got to go out there and try and score on every drive. But that’s on my shoulders, we have to go out there and start faster.”
Of course, this is Allen’s first-ever playoff game with the amped up pressure.
“He hasn’t been in a playoff game,” Bills’ offensive coordinator Brian Daboll pointed out. “You really have to go back to the basics. What wins in September wins in January: taking care of the football, making good decisions, getting us into the right checks. All those things matter in September and they matter in January.
“Each playoff game is different. The juices get flowing, it’s a competitive time of year, you’ve got to do a good job of trying to stay as level-headed as you can. You want to win the game so bad, but you have to stay consistent with your routine and the things you’ve done throughout the year.”
Still, the perception is, if the Bills are to win this game, it will be on defense, though coordinator Leslie Frazier doesn’t quite view it that way.
“I see it more about our team than about our defense,” he said. “I really hope and pray that we win this game and put together a great performance as a team. That’s all that really matters to me. If we win and move on, that’s the goal.
“If we win 39-38, we won the game. I’m a happy trooper because I understand, in this league, it’s about winning. Obviously, you like to have personal success on defense, offense, special teams, but at the end of the day, it’s about winning as a team.”
It’s worth noting that the Texans are 2-4 in their last six playoff games, all four of those defeats by 13 points or more, two of them (21-7 to Indianapolis; 30-0 to Kansas City) at home.
As Allen pointed out, “We want to win this game … they want to win this game. We’re ready for a dog fight. It’s going to be four quarters and we’ve got to understand that, ride the good and the bad in the game because we’ll face adversity at some point.”
