ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Funny how things change in the National Football League over the course of a mere three weeks.
Coming into this season, based on last year’s records, it was clear that the AFC East had the softest collective schedule in the league.
Worse, the Patriots, who have won 16 of the past 18 division titles, were tied with the Jets for the NFL’s second-easiest slate.
The Bills were deadlocked for the 24th softest schedule.
Now, three games in, Buffalo, after yesterday’s too-tense 21-17 win over the Bengals at New Era Field, is unbeaten as is next Sunday’s opponent, New England. But here’s the oddity. None of the Bills and Patriots foes, to date, had won a game until the Giants unlikely victory at Tampa Bay. Collectively they are 1-17.
And while only a cock-eyed optimist assumes coach Sean McDermott’s crew will get the best of the Pats, who have beaten Buffalo 34 times in the last 38 meetings, here a week from now, a strong effort would certainly help the Bills credibility.
However, if three games provide a road map, Buffalo’s chances to improve on preseason predictions are good no matter what happens against New England.
Consider, the Bills’ subsequent 12 games include two meetings with Miami (0-3) and one each with the Jets (0-3), Pittsburgh (0-3), Denver (0-3) and Washington (0-2).
Those are hardly six guaranteed wins but Buffalo would be favored in four or five of them. And, to be sure, the unexpected struggles of the Steelers and Titans (1-2) have somewhat altered the AFC playoff landscape.
Yeah, it’s risky to look that far ahead, injuries and slumps have a way of trampling fan optimism. But it’s not unfair to say the optic on the Bills season has taken a much different look less than 20 percent in.
OK, so that’s the good news.
The bad is that Buffalo’s performance against Cincinnati was strictly not-ready-for-prime-time.
This game never should have been a 4-point win. And after the first half, they should not have trailed.
When a team wins the turnover battle, 4-2, and has a 110-yard edge in offensive yardage, it shouldn’t come down to a tipped interception in the final seconds to secure the victory.
When asked if he felt the Bills should have been farther ahead in the game, McDermott admitted, “Yeah, with all due respect to the Bengals.”
He added, “We were too loose with the football and the momentum changed and we can’t let that happen.”
His reference was to a major gaffe by second-year quarterback Josh Allen midway through the third period.
With the the Bills up 14-0 and the defense having stymied Cincinnati offense, Allen, under pressure, threw off his back foot directly into coverage trying to connect with Cole Beasley. Instead, the ill-considered throw was picked off by Bengals cornerback Darius Phillips.
He returned the interception to the Buffalo 22-yard line and three plays later it was a 14-7 game. The Bengals eventually went up 17-14 two possessions later after a field goal and it was left to Allen to engineer a 78-yard, 7-play game-winning touchdown drive with 1:50 to play.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do and we’ve got to learn from it. We’ve got to learn to do things better in critical moments of the game,” McDermott said. “You’ve got to be smart … you can’t throw the ball into the defense like that. I thought it was a play that changed the momentum of the game especially doing it on our side of the field (because) before that their offense hadn’t done much. We have to play smarter football.”
It was a rare rebuke of his young quarterback … but entirely deserved.
The reality is, two of the Bills three victories — Jets and Bengals — have required Allen to fashion comebacks from deficits he helped create.
And while it’s encouraging that he’s done it, those rallies haven’t exactly come against the NFL elite.
Those mistakes won’t float against New England.
(Chuck Pollock, a Times Herald senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)
