The 2018 NHL Draft kicks off tonight, and it’s the most anticipated draft for Buffalo Sabres fans since — well, since Jack Eichel was selected just three years ago. So not that long, really.
But the big difference this year is that the Sabres find themselves in a position they’ve only been in twice before: owning the rights to the first overall pick.
The last two times that happened — when Buffalo selected Gilbert Perreault in 1970 and Pierre Turgeon in 1987 — it turned out pretty well, so hopes are high that the third time will follow suit.
Hope, of course, is the word of the day for every team on draft night, but when you have a chance to select a player like presumed number one pick Rasmus Dahlin, the expectations don’t really have a ceiling.
Such is the praise that the young defenseman from Sweden has drawn for the past couple years, the kind of praise that has led many in the industry to label Dahlin the best blueline prospect in a generation — or two.
Dahlin, along with Eichel, will be a cornerstone for the Sabres as they look to crawl out of the spot in the National Hockey League basement they have occupied for quite some time. But as anyone will tell you, it takes more than one, or even two, great players to complete such a turnaround, and after finishing with a league-worst 62 points in 2017-18, the Sabres are clearly more than just a player or two away from being contenders.
There is evidence for optimism for Sabres fans, however. The last two teams to pick first overall — the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2016 (Auston Matthews) and the New Jersey Devils in 2017 (Nico Hischier) — went on to make the playoffs the very next season. In fact, the last four teams to finish dead-last in their respective conferences were playoff teams the next season (that includes the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche in 2017 and 2018, respectively).
While making the playoffs in 2019 would certainly be a great achievement, the Sabres — like the Buffalo Bills — are looking for more than just flash in the pan success. Building a strong organizational foundation needs to be the focus not only this offseason, but in the seasons to come.
As mentioned earlier, Dahlin will be a focal point of that foundation, and history has shown that he has a better than average chance to be a difference-making player. There will always be busts in any draft, but it’s becoming rarer than ever to find them at the number one overall spot.
If you look back at the last decade and a half, the only number one overall picks who truly haven’t lived up to that billing (so far) are Erik Johnson (2006), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011), and Nail Yakupov (2012), and even Nugent-Hopkins has proven to be a solid if not spectacular player.
More often than not, though, number one overall selections are franchise-changing players: recent picks Matthews and Connor McDavid have already established themselves as superstars in the league, and just the other night 2010 first overall pick Taylor Hall won the Hart Trophy as league MVP.
No one is expecting Dahlin to challenge for MVP honors right away — though he figures to be a frontrunner for the Calder Trophy for Rookie of the Year.
Dahlin, Eichel, and 2017 first-rounder Casey Mittelstadt will form the core of the Sabres moving forward. From a positional perspective, it’s exactly the kind of core you want. The four most important positions in hockey (in no particular order) are: number one center, number two center, number one defenseman, number one goaltender.
After tonight, the Sabres figure to have three of those four spots filled (Eichel, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, respectively), with goaltender being the only missing link.
But it’s a long road ahead: many more personnel decisions need to be made, not the least of which is determining the futures of Ryan O’Reilly and Robin Lehner. Even with a full year of Dahlin, Eichel, and Mittelstadt playing together, no one should expect the Sabres to be a playoff team in 2018-19.
But the hope is that the wait for the Sabres to return to contention is a short one. As the Vegas Golden Knights proved this past season, the days of the five-year rebuild are over.
The Sabres are entering year two of yet another rebuild. With Rasmus Dahlin in tow, Buffalo fans can only hope that it’s the last rebuild they’ll have to endure for a long time.