ST. BONAVENTURE, N.Y. — A despondency permeated the air from North Carolina to Olean to the television sets of alumni across the country.
Disappointing.
Frustrating.
Disheartening.
Those were just some of the words used by St. Bonaventure fans to describe the season in the aftermath of the Bonnies’ 83-73 loss to Davidson on Friday night, their fourth setback in the last five games. It was a long way from the euphoric feeling that enveloped the fan base the night Bona beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome, which pushed its winning streak to seven games and led to its first Top 25 votes of the year.
At that point, Bona had the season by the throat. In a weak year for the Atlantic 10, it seemed perfectly positioned for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, the clearly established goal heading into Jaylen Adams’ senior year. Its performance in a 20-point conference-opening victory over UMass led to the following headline from a Massachusetts beat writer:
“Mark Schmidt’s miracle in barren Olean.”
That’s what makes their current circumstances so difficult to imagine: The Bonnies are now in 11th place (among 14 teams) in the A-10 standings, winless on the road in conference play and effectively out of NCAA consideration.
It’s amazing how quickly things can change in a mere three-week span.
The funny thing is, it’s not as if any of those four road losses are “bad” losses when viewed individually. It’s hard to win in Dayton; it’s tough to beat Davidson when it’s shooting that well at home.
But this is a Bona team that was expected to carry the conference with Rhode Island, one that had already taken out both Maryland and Syracuse away from the Reilly Center. Surely, it could be expected to weather that difficult start by winning perhaps two of those games.
In that scenario, the Bonnies are 4-2 with another Top 100ish victory, no harmful losses and nothing but blue skies ahead with the most challenging portion of the non-conference season behind them.
Instead, at 2-4 in a weak conference and with four losses this month by an average of 10 points, it’s likely dug itself too big a hole to truly have a chance at the Dance, barring running the regular season table or winning the A-10 Tournament in March.
“St. Bonaventure has now dropped four of its last five after tonight’s loss to Davidson,” CBS’ Jon Rothstein tweeted after Friday’s game. “Don’t see any way an A10 team other than URI gets an at-large.”
For what it’s worth, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who runs the most heralded bracket projection, agrees with that sentiment.
And so, rather than returning home and preparing to start their NCAA push in earnest against a schedule that includes just two top 100 opponents the rest of the way, the Bonnies are merely trying to get right. And instead of optimism, it’s questions that abound.
Has the senior leadership during this difficult stretch been good enough?
Have the Bonnies been outcoached?
Has Bona folded under the weight of such lofty preseason expectations?
The truth is, there’s probably no one reason for its current slide, though there are tangible things to point to: The disappearance of its defense on the road (they’ve allowed an average of 84 points), a lack of fluidity on the offensive end, not enough help for Adams and Matt Mobley.
And how about this stat from a post by A10talk.com: In their eight-game win streak, the Bonnies’ plus-minus rating in the last five minutes of the first half and the first five minutes of the second half was plus-51. During the last five games? It’s minus-31. Bona essentially lost each of those four road games in the first five minutes of the second half.
Again, what’s peculiar is how it could look so good away from the RC in November and December (remember that win over UB when Adams had just returned from his foot injury? The Bulls are up to No. 27 in the RPI) and be struggling so much in January.
The unfortunate reality is that, as of now, the Bonnies have failed to live up to their preseason billing. And their at-large chances appear shot.
But that doesn’t mean the season is over.
Bona has 12 games remaining, seven of those at home, in the “easier” portion of its schedule (it could well be the favorite in just about every game the rest of the way, save for maybe URI at home). Despite its record, it’s still among the top two or three most talented teams in the league.
If Bona can rediscover its identity from the non-conference, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see it go on a run beginning tomorrow against Saint Joseph’s and win another nine or 10 games in conference play. This is still a team that’s beaten a quartet of top 70 opponents this year.
That means that even at 2-4, it still has a traversable path to a top four spot and one of the coveted first-round byes in the A-10 Tournament.
And at this point, that has to be the goal.
For Bona, the new season starts Wednesday in the Reilly Center.
(J.P. Butler, Bradford Publishing group sports editor, can be reached at othbutler@gmail.com)
