ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — The numbers are as compelling as they are long-term.
Since Bill Belichick took over as coach of the Patriots in 2000, his record against the Bills is 29-5.
Small wonder Buffalo has missed the playoffs over those 17 years.
The stats for New England quarterback Tom Brady are even more compelling … he’s 26-3 against the Bills, and one of those defeats came when Belichick rested his starters and played his QB only a half with the Pats’ post-season position already locked.
Those are the numbers Buffalo is facing Sunday afternoon when it hosts New England (9-2) at New Era Field on Sunday.
The Bills (6-5), with a loss, could find themselves in a four-way tie for the second and final AFC wild-card playoff spot when this week’s games are over.
For CBS-TV, it’s the only AFC matchup of two winning teams, which is why its No. 1 broadcast team — Jim Nantz and Tony Romo — is calling the game.
Then, of course, there’s the Brady factor.
With a victory, he will have beaten the Bills 27 times, breaking the tie with Brett Favre (26 over Detroit) for the most wins by a quarterback over one team. He’s also thrown for more touchdowns against Buffalo (66) than any other opponent and more 300-yard passing games (10) against the Bills than any other NFL team.
And there are other compelling statistics as Belichick, with New England, is 60-12 (.833 pct.) in December games, the best record among NFL head coaches with one team for at least 25 games.
Brady is 54-10 (.844 pct.) in December, second in winning percentage only to Dallas’ Roger Staubach (17-3, .850 pct.).
And, oh yeah, with a win the Patriots would virtually lock up their ninth straight AFC East title and 15th in the last 17 years.
During Wednesday’s conference call with the Bills media, Belichick was his usual droll, guarded, uninformative self, but did provide a hint at what drives him and his squad.
“We play against great teams, great coaches and great players every week,” he said, “and we have to be at our best or we know it won’t be good enough … so that’s what we try to do every week.”
For Buffalo, it’s the first of three straight home games and it comes a week after the Bills went into Kansas City and upset the Chiefs, 16-10. But before that they were blown out three consecutive starts by the Jets, Saints and Chargers in which they gave up a franchise-worst 135 points over that span, outscored by an average of 45-18.
Now it’s the Patriots … a 9-point favorite, on the road.
In assessing the New England, Bills’ first-year head coach Sean McDermott pointed out, “They do a good job of identifying strengths, trying to make other teams beat them in other ways. I think that’s a big part of what they do and how they prepare … that’s fairly clear and that’s smart; it’s logical and makes a lot of sense.
“We have to make sure that’s where the focus gets back to, on ourselves and what we do, strengthening our strengths and making sure we improve our weaknesses.”
Then, of course, there’s defending Brady, who has taken New England to seven Super Bowls, winning five, and has become the consensus candidate as the greatest quarterback in NFL history.
Some teams try to pressure him, others drop back in coverage … but neither have worked except to a limited extent.
“There lies the problem, the challenge,” McDermott said. “You see some people pressure, and they put up 35. You see some people stay back, and they put up 35, or 40, or 50. I don’t think there’s an exact formula and that’s why they’ve gotten to where they’ve gotten to over the years.”
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo’s feature running back, is particularly impressed by Brady.
“He’s for sure one of the best, if not the best quarterback of all time. His work ethic, the time he puts in, you can see it,” McCoy said. “Hopefully, we’re making plays on him, sacking him, but it’ll be a good game. We’ve just got to go in and focus … can’t make a lot of mistakes, not a lot of penalties. It’s hard enough playing against him, so we’ll need the extra help.”
As for Brady’s play at age 40 — he’s No. 1 in passer rating, passing yards, completions, yards per attempt and lowest interception percentage this season — McCoy said, “That’s just a blessing. Some guys at 21, 22 can’t play that good. It’s actually something that’s amazing to see. You’re witnessing greatness.”
To be sure, Brady has the most wins as a starting QB in NFL history (217) and the best winning percentage (.780) of the Super Bowl era.
And all of that, would make a Bills victory Sunday even more impressive.
When asked if beating New England would change Buffalo’s season, McCoy speculated, “I think so … really … a big team, a good team, a winning team. They’re 9-2, they’re a tough group (with) a lot of good players. A win would be big for us.”
As it is for most any team that defeats the Pats in a meaningful matchup.
“There are a lot of teams that have been in that situation against the Patriots,” McDermott said. “We’ve just got to focus on what we do and the mental toughness part. There’s moments in every game where (it) hangs in the balance or things don’t go your way, and that’s part of establishing our mental toughness as a football team.
“There’s going to be moments in a season where things ebb and flow and how you handle those moments sometimes determines how far you go and how high you fly at the end of the day.”
Or if you crash and burn.
