It appears the price of natural gas will be lower this winter
for residents across northwestern Pennsylvania.

Officials said the decline is due to a larger than normal supply
of natural gas and a drop in the price of crude oil. However,
experts caution the somewhat volatile winter weather could play a
role in whether prices will rise sometime during the next few
months.

Prices are also slated to fall for heating oil, propane and
electricity, according to the Energy Information Administration.
That’s in stark contrast from last year, when the state faced
record natural gas prices.

Locally, National Fuel – on the heels of withdrawing its
controversial proposed surcharge on customers’ bills – expects to
lower rates again on Nov. 1. Meanwhile, Columbia Gas lowered its
price earlier this month – a 27 percent decrease from the previous
year, according to spokeswoman Leslie Orbin.

“The prices are still forecast to be lower going into this
winter,” Sandra Crockett, communications coordinator for the
Natural Gas Supply Association in Washington, said. “The prices are
being driven right now by a good supply of natural gas and the fact
the weather forecast for the winter has been kind to us so far.

“But, the weather is everybody’s wildcard … that could help
change prices during the winter.”

Crockett said the decline is the first one predicted nationwide
in “a long time.”

U.S. Energy Department officials said families using natural gas
– the most widely used fuel source in the nation – should expect to
pay an average of $119 less during the winter season compared with
last year, a decrease of 13 percent.

According to the EIS, residential heating oil prices decreased
by 0.2 cents for the period ending Oct. 16 – a 26.5 percent fall
from the same period last year. The average residential propane
price also dipped by 0.6 cents.

“A lot of the high prices we saw last fall could be attributed
to the supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico (following
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita),” Orbin said. “The weather really does
play a part in this. The colder it gets, the more demand and the
higher the price.”

Orbin said Columbia Gas, like other natural gas utilities, file
rate changes on a quarterly basis. This month, the company
announced a new rate of $8.67 per thousand cubic feet, leaving an
average bill of $107 for customers – 31 percent lower than last
January.

Columbia will next be eligible to switch rates on Jan. 1.

“We’ve seen costs decrease across the board in regards to the
prices we are paying on the open market for natural gas,” Orbin
said. “We are not permitted to make or lose money. Whatever we pay
in natural gas is passed directly onto our customers dollar for
dollar.”

Orbin said the company’s prices are “tracking pretty closely” to
figures in the early part of 2000-01.

“Natural gas remains a good energy value,” Orbin said.

Nancy Taylor of National Fuel said the company is looking at
lowering its rates on Nov. 1. She didn’t indicate what the exact
rate could be, but rates are 21 percent lower now than at the start
of last winter.

However, last week National Fuel announced its delivery service
charges would increase by $5.39, from $120.08 to $125.47 a month
starting Jan. 1 if approved by the Pennsylvania Utility
Commission.

In August, National Fuel indicated its rates for customers would
drop almost $24 a month to $120. The utility serves about 214,000
customers in 14 counties, including McKean County.

Meanwhile, the third utility serving the region, Pennsylvania
Power and Light, was looking at raising its prices by 7.1 percent.
PPL’s service area is scattered and is concentrated near
Coudersport.

The price of crude oil also continues to drop, aiding the
decline in prices for natural gas.

On Monday, local oil purchasers American Refining Group and
Ergon Oil Purchasing were paying $53.75 and $53, respectively.

The price for Penn Grade crude reached record highs in August at
more than $73 a barrel. That led to an explosion in the number of
wells drilled across the area.

Mother Nature might not be as kind to residents, though.

According to AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe
Bastardi, the winter forecast calls for cooler than normal
temperatures in the eastern portion of the country, adding a high
pressure area over northeastern Canada could force Arctic air down
over the region, leading to prolonged periods of cold weather,
particularly in January.

“Signs are pointing to a rough conclusion to winter in the
northeast,” Bastardi said.

Bill Orcechowski, executive director of the Area Agency on Aging
in Ridgway, said seniors are “happy to hear the gas prices are
predicted to be lower,” but are still high for those living on a
limited income.

“The longer its been since a person has retired, the less buying
power they have,” Orcechowski said. “The older person, all things
being equal, are more likely to run into difficulty with increased
energy prices.”

Orcechowski said his staff works with seniors on how to conserve
energy around their home during the winter months.