SMETHPORT – With the onset of flu season, officials across
McKean County are preparing for an even greater menace – a possible
Avian flu pandemic.

While the well-publicized disease hasn’t made it to U.S. shores
yet, cases in humans have been reported elsewhere across the globe,
principally in Asia. The virus is nothing to sneeze about – a
similar virulent flu outbreak in 1918 killed more than 500,000
people. By comparison, a typical flu season claims the lives of
about 36,000 people a year.

Luckily, the county is ahead of the curve in terms of preparing
for such a pandemic.

“I’m very comfortable we have a plan in place,” McKean County
President Judge John Cleland said, adding residents shouldn’t panic
with the thought of a pandemic, but begin to be prepared to meet
any challenges. “My sense is we are ahead of other places in terms
of awareness of the problem. If this happens, and nothing has been
done, it’s too late.”

Cleland is somewhat of a local expert on the Avian flu, offering
opinions on the subject to the U.S. Department of Justice and
Centers for Disease Control.

Ironically, the first tool of defense to combat such an incident
lies in county residents’ hands – literally.

“It’s really a matter of doing what your mother told you to do;
wash your hands, cover your mouth when you sneeze. That holds true
for not only a possible pandemic, but the seasonal flu,” Cleland
said. “The lesson of (Hurricane) Katrina holds true here. The
responsibility really lies with the individual person.”

The real test comes in understanding what such a pandemic would
mean to society across the county, an idea which Cleland said
officials will need to remain “flexible” to cope with.

“Prevention and preparedness,” Cleland said, adding every
resident should have a two-week supply of basic items, including
bottled water and necessary medication.

According to Cleland, the federal and state governments have
both prepared a pandemic flu plan, but have told the local
municipalities it’s up to them to enact their own plans.

“Everybody’s resources would be overwhelmed,” Cleland said.

Avian flu differs from the typical flu in various ways,
including the length of the outbreak – Avian flu usually comes in
waves and can last over years. The Avian flu also brings about more
complications, such as overwhelming health systems, causes
widespread restrictions on travel and has the potential to effect
the domestic and world economy.

On a smaller scale, the SARS epidemic in nearby Toronto also
provides a blueprint for dealing with a major health scare.

“We have to protect against supply disruptions,” Cleland said.
“The feds are advising there could be an employee absentee rate of
up to 40 percent. In a sense we are really planning for the
continuity of businesses and other aspects of society.”

Officials said such a pandemic would impact everything from the
court system, trucking industry and media to the ability to get
groceries, chlorine for the municipal water supply and common
utilities. To protect against the spread of the flu, schools and
other closed environments also could need to be shut down.

“The EMA has a plan in the works to distribute drugs to every
resident in the county within 48 hours,” Cleland said.

According to the county’s Strategic National Stockpile and Point
of Dispensing Plan, there would be four primary locations for
medical distribution, including Kane Community Hospital or Bradford
Regional Medical Center and at Smethport and Kane area high schools
and the University of Pittsburgh at Bradford.

Those sites would be staffed by at least 50 to 60 people and
about 10 security personnel – law and order is also a primary
concern – along with EMS and communication workers.

Using the 1918 model as a reference, officials said of the
48,000 county residents, 300 would likely die as a result of a
major outbreak, while 25 percent of the population, or 12,000
people, would fall ill. Of that, 1,200 would need to be
hospitalized; combined Bradford Regional and Kane Community only
have 150 available beds, meaning medical tents would likely be set
up in various locations across the county to treat the ill.

The county is not the only entity considering the flu’s
potential. Other municipalities and school districts are also
devising plans to deal with the problem.

Bradford City Clerk John Peterson said he, along with officials
from the local Department of Health, have been regularly attending
seminars and conferences dealing with pandemic response.

“The biggest problem is there hasn’t been human to human passage
of this (Avian flu) yet,” Peterson said, adding until that happens
medical experts can’t work on a treatment for the disease.

Cleland said while a pandemic might never find its way to the
continental U.S., it’s only common sense to prepare, noting the
plans in the works could also likely be used in the event of a
natural or man made calamity.

“You have to give people good information and trust they will
use their own judgment and do the right thing,” Cleland said. “We
have a responsibility to be educated and understand the
problem.”