Br-r-rADFORD: As if the prospect of a 70 percent increase in
home heating costs weren’t enough, we get word that our winter is
expected to be colder and snowier than usual.

And, unfortunately, the forecast comes from AccuWeather.com
which has an annoying habit of being right.

The news comes from its Long Range Forecast Team headed by lead
meteorologist Joe Bastardi.

AccuWeather.com bases its findings on, among other factors, a
study of the 2005 hurricane season and other similar
“hyper-hurricane” seasons, particularly 1933, 1969 and 1995. The
winters that followed each of those active hurricane years were
cold in the Northeast.

The winter of 1995-96 was cold across the northern Plains and
the Southeast. Bitter cold gripped the Midwest in the winter of
1969-70, while a severe winter settled over the Northeast in
1933-34, a winter that was unseasonably warm west of the Ohio
Valley.

Meteorologists are big at studying cycles.

A trend started in the Northeast about four or five years ago,
and the region experienced more snowfall than average and
temperatures at normal or below-normal. That will continue. In fact
temperatures will be as much as 3.5 degrees colder.

Furthermore, a warm summer such as occurred this year usually
leads to normal or above-normal snow amounts in the Great Lakes,
according to Accuweather.com.

One final note from accuweather: Conditions in the North
Atlantic will help keep the region colder than average, so that
even if it is drier than normal, what moisture does move through is
more likely than normal to be snow.

We get basically the same story from an article in the Oct. 8
edition of the Erie newspaper which interviewed a couple of
weather-watchers.

Dr. Tom Arno, a Meadville cardiologist who passionately pursues
meteorology as a hobby, predicted a “four-shovel winter.”

“I look at climatological cycles,” he said. “I’m really big on
cycles because I believe nature repeats itself. When we have a very
active hurricane season, warm summer and a lack of an El Nino and a
LaNina, we usually get pelted in winter.”

WJET-TV meteorologist Brian Neudorff agreed with that
assessment: “I’ve been doing some looking back myself and I see a
lot of similarities with the winter of 95-96. Back then, the winter
produced 129.2 inches of snow in Erie and a lot of cold. This year
is very similar, a weak El Nino, warm summer and active hurricane
season.”