ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (TNS) — Surely this is the week the Buffalo Bills turn Josh Allen loose and let him air it out, right?
The New England Patriots have 26th-ranked passing defense in the NFL. They have the No. 2 rushing defense in yards allowed and yards per carry, while leading the league in tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage.
It all screams “Let Allen throw,” doesn’t it?
Don’t be so sure.
If there are any guarantees with this Joe Brady offense it’s that they are going to run the ball. Buffalo’s NFL-high 133 rushing attempts are 11 more than its passing attempts and only the Philadelphia Eagles have a higher rushing percentage.
The Bills’ 163.5 yards rushing per game is the most in the league by nearly 10 yards and they have made it clear they are going to attempt to establish the run heavily in every game, proving it Week 3 against a secondary-depleted Miami Dolphins team.
“Coach (Mike) Vrabel does a great job on the defensive side and he does a great job of having those guys ready,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “They always play like he played — very physical and we know that. Whenever you go against one of his defenses, you have to make sure you bring that part of your game.”
Since taking over as offensive coordinator 10 games into 2023, Brady’s biggest impact on the offense has been his persistence in crafting a legitimate rushing attack. The Bills have ranked in the top-10 in rushing every year but 2020 since McDermott arrived in 2017, but from 2018 and 2023, it was inconsistent.
Under offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, the Bills had spurts where they were run-heavy. But his last two seasons in 2020 and 2021, it was largely centered around Allen in run-pass options (RPOs) and Allen has thrown on 82% of those plays during his career.
Once Daboll left to be head coach of the New York Giants, Ken Dorsey moved away from RPOs, but his running game was erratic. His offense was built around Allen’s arm, throwing it nearly 60% of the time.
Under Brady, the Bills have run the ball 50.7% of the time and he’s increased the use of running backs. Under Daboll and Dorsey, running backs logged roughly 68% of the team’s carries, but it has jumped to 73% under Brady, with running backs getting nearly 10 more attempts per game than Dorsey’s 26-game stint as the play caller.
Sometimes the Bills would run a gap (a series of blocks that opens a specific gap) blocking scheme on one play and a zone run the next. Now there is no question what the Bills want to do and they feel it has enabled them to be more complex this year, even compared to last year when they ranked ninth in the league in rushing.
“I thought last year we had to keep it more simple with the run plays,” right guard O’Cyrus Torrence said. “Now we’re able to read the Mike, backside Mike, Mike it if the safety is coming down, read the box, knowing when the motion is coming and it’s playing a bigger part in being an excellent running game.”
Another reason for the increased success is Brady adapted to maximize the talents of James Cook and the offensive line. Under Dorsey, 42% of Cook’s carries were on zone plays and 39.5% of the team’s were zone running plays.
But since Brady began calling plays, 52.7% of Cook’s carries are zone runs and 52% of the team runs are zone. And one of their favorite running plays, duo, is often debated about being a gap or zone run because there are no tackles or guards pulling, rather linemen are seeking double-teams on a first-level defender.
Unsurprisingly, Cook became one of the top running backs in the league and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Month thanks to his second-ranked 401 yards through four games. Cook has elite vision, especially as a cut-back runner on zone plays.
“His vision, his patience and burst — everybody’s at the point of attack,” Vrabel said. “He runs where you’re not, and if you have bad discipline or you don’t chase your gap when it’s moving away from you, he’s going to come back and find it.”
So surely the Bills won’t back down from a Patriots front spearheaded by 300-pounders Christian Barmore and Milton Williams, who earned a four-year, $104 million contract after notching two sacks in the Super Bowl.
The flow of the game might dictate more passing attempts, just as it did against the Baltimore Ravens. But it won’t be because the Bills know the Patriots are allowing 3.3 yards per carry or stopping 28% of their runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
“I didn’t know they were No. 2 (in run defense) until today,” right tackle Spencer Brown said. “So that doesn’t change my point of view on the game. We’ll put the ball down and play.”
